“It seems Pfizer and Moderna are already producing the vaccines faster than we can get it into people, thus a 40M dose inventory.”
General policy is that first shots are not given, unless the second shot is on hand in inventory. So about three to four weeks worth of shots at the current rate (3 for Pfizer, 4 for Moderna) need to be in inventory. As our rate of first shots has climbed from around a million per day toward two, the inventory has grown.
So the inventory growth more reflects the growth of capacity to administer, rather than a shortfall in capacity. That capacity is planned to continue to increase, along with planned growth in vaccine deliveries, through June.
May or June should see the peak daily rates.
So far however, it seems to me that vaccine deliveries have been the constraint, rather than capacity to administer.
I sometimes wonder if the Biden Admin might drag their heels on approving AZ or Novavax, waiting for bribes, or because they compete with Moderna, where Fauci and Gates have a financial interest. Perhaps it is simple ineptitude, or bureaucratic lack of urgency.
Novavax should be approved within a month.
AstraZeneca screwed up their trials, both in the US and the in UK. Their data is worthless. Further, studies have shown their vaccine is worthless against the South Africa variant. Back in July/August, I'd have told you that the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine was the most promising and likely to be the first out the door. Nobody knew they had done terribly sloppy trials and had an inferior product.