We’re looking for about 250 million from one report I read. I doubt it has to really be that many as there are already millions who have achieved immunity naturally.
“We’re looking for about 250 million from one report I read. I doubt it has to really be that many as there are already millions who have achieved immunity naturally.”
The Biden Admin wants to get as many adults as possible vaccinated, and has discussed 250 million as a significant threshold for herd immunity. (that might also be the total of those estimated to be willing to receive it - about 75% of the population)
Operation Warp Speed (Trump Admin) also intended to vaccinate most adults, but discussed the first 100 million on the priority list (including everyone over 65 who wants it) as a significant threshold for ending the Public Health emergency.
By this point, it seems likely that around 100 million Americans have already been exposed through natural infection. Some estimates are as high as 150, or even 180 million.
“We’re looking for about 250 million from one report I read. I doubt it has to really be that many as there are already millions who have achieved immunity naturally.”
Another factor, is that some people are more important than others.
The reason why we have lockdowns for COVID, and not the common cold, is because of the higher number of COVID serious cases, hospitalizations and deaths. Those are all overwhelmingly among older people. That vulnerable subset is much more important for driving lockdowns (and re-openings).
Just Nursing home residents alone accounted for more than 40% of deaths. They have now had their first shots, and 60% have finished up their seconds. 24 million of the 55 million people over 65 have already had first shot (including 60% of the people over 75).
But when it comes to naturally acquired immunity that you were talking about, some people are also more important than others. High contact people, like cashiers, food service workers, police or taxi drivers, are much more important to disease spread, then are stay at home retirees. Those high contact people are disproportionally likely to be among those who have already been exposed, and developed natural immunity.
There is yet another interesting possibility in the population’s immunity. Some percentage may have a pre-existing cross-immunity to COVID-19, from exposure to other coronaviruses. It has been theorized that this is why so many people have no symptoms from COVID-19 infections.
These three groups - those previously resistant, those exposed, and those vaccinated - will overlap somewhat randomly, but they may all be significantly large numbers.
COVID’s days are numbered.