People are forgetting an important point here. The strategy to fight this case almost certainly changed after 45 Republicans voted in favor of Rand Paul’s motion to have the impeachment declared unconstitutional. Granted, there’s nothing that prevents any of those 45 from changing their minds and voting to convict, but after seeing GOP House leader Kevin McCarthy crawl from California to visit Trump in Florida I think the exact opposite is the case.
You’re sharp and analyze things well. Which of these two scenarios do you think is more likely to happen?
1. Trump is convicted in the Senate trial.
2. Lizard Cheney is pushed out of office by the GOP — either by resigning or losing her 2022 primary.
I think they are both going to happen.
I am presuming that the latest Trump interdimensional chess plan intends to avoid conviction. I can believe in an alternative scenario wherein he WANTS to be convicted, but I don't think that is probable.
To avoid conviction, he needs to hold 10-20 Republican Senators who would vote to convict if they could do so secretly.
It's my opinion that offering "election fraud" as a defense to incitement is a defense of "necessity", that is, "yes, I did it but I had to do it, and here's why".
I can't think of anything more certain to pull those missing ten votes over to "guilty" than that.
If that's how he wants to go out, so be it, but I think he could avoid conviction with a strict procedural defense.
And, don't forget, with Leahy in the chair, they only need 66 votes to convict, not 67.
Corey Lewandowski mentioned that President Trump still has hundreds of millions of dollars in his campaign coffers, ready to use in 2022 if he chooses to do so.
This scares the crap out of the both the GOPe and the democrats.