Estimated Disease Burden of COVID-19 [CDC lowers estimated number of CV infections (91 to 83 mil.) based on dubious increasing

* Since the previous update, CDC has received additional data about the proportion of persons with symptomatic illness who seek medical attention or COVID-19 testing services, one of the sources of under-detection accounted for in these estimates. These updated data indicated higher levels of health-seeking behavior than data included in our previous estimates. The higher values of health-seeking behavior result in lower estimates of infections, symptomatic illnesses, and hospitalizations than previously reported. CDC will continue to update these preliminary estimates as additional data become available and improve our understanding of the detection and reporting of COVID-19..

	Infections	Symptomatic Illnesses	Hospitalizations
0-4 years	4%	4%	1%
5-17 years	18%	18%	2%
18-49 years	50%	51%	26%
50-64 years	17%	17%	25%
65 and older	11%	10%	46%

"Since the previous update, CDC has received additional data about the proportion of persons with symptomatic illness who seek medical attention or COVID-19 testing services...The higher values of health-seeking behavior result in lower estimates of infections, symptomatic illnesses, and hospitalizations than previously reported."

In contrast the CDC (Dec. 11) provided a figure of 91 Million Estimated Total Infections

The reduced estimation of Jan. 19, 2021 is based upon higher levels of persons with symptomatic illness who seek medical attention or COVID-19 testing services, but which higher levels is consistent with more people being infected, and thus this would also mean that more people are infected who do not experience or report symptoms to medical personnel or COVID-19 testing services. Meaning that the estimated total infection figure should be higher than before

However, the CDC seems to reason that despite the increased tests and case and hospitalization counts,this subtracts those persons then these infected persons symptomatic illness must be subtract from those who are infected but do not seek testing or medical help.

But if the number of total infections actually went down then political correctness means this would mean it occurred under Trump.

As of 8:23:09 AM Fri, 01/01/21 we had the figure of 355,000 Covid-assigned deaths out of 21,000,000 (slightly anticipated and in rounded figures) positive Covid-19 cases, which figures (Y is what % of X) to be a CFR of 1.69% (CFR=Case Fatality Rate - see here for more on this - which rate is based on confirmed cases, and which are the minority of cases and have been those mostly likely to be tested and to die, since for most of the pandemic those who had symptoms were the most likely to be tested, while a large percentage of persons who test positive never developed any symptoms) Note: there are over 80 countries with a higher CFR than the USA.

As for the IFR (Infection Fatality Rate, meaning Covid-assigned deaths as a % of the estimated total infections, vs. confirmed infections) in the US, an official estimate of the estimated total infections in the US is very hard to find, but the CDC (Dec. 11) provided a figure of 91 Million Estimated Total Infections and at which time there were about 300,000 Covid-assigned deaths (figures are rounded), and which translates into a IFR of 0.33.

Then we have the CMR Crude Morality Rate(Covid-assigned deaths as a % of the total pop.), in which 355,000 as a % of 332,000,000 is 0.11%. And with 1,828,684 Covid-assigned deaths worldwide (12–28–20) out of a total world population of 7,800,000,000 people (as of March 2020), then the overall worldwide Covid-19 crude morality rate (CMR) is 0.02.

Yesterday, a total of 3,414 people in the US died of Covid-19.

For comparison, abortion kills, on average between 1748 (reported cases) and 2363 (reported + estimated cases) every day (2018 numbers).

Heart disease kills an average of 1796 per day (2018 numbers).

Covid-19 deaths have frequently surpassed these #1 and #2 killers since about mid-November. On three separate days, Covid-19 killed more than the top two killers combined. (I calculated this based on the higher abortion number. If I use only reported abortion numbers, then Covid-19 deaths surpassed both top causes of death combined on 11 days.)

So no, this is not and has never been a shamdemic. It is very real. The numbers of excess deaths are real.

It looks like the CDC based the estimated case count on the experience with influenza disease and testing. However, there are serious limitations with this methodology (which the CDC report acknowledged). For one thing, influenza is not a reportable disease except for pediatric cases. For another, people are much more likely to seek testing for Covid-19 than they are for influenza. In general, the more testing is done, the fewer cases are likely to be missed. Right now, about 88% of the US population has been tested. I suspect that the estimates will be revised downward as the CDC gathers more data on the disease burden. There are just over 25 million confirmed US cases so far, and the death rate is 1.67%.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm#dashboard
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/ss/ss6907a1.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_statistics_in_the_United_States

I’ve noticed that fewer people are purposely wearing masks wrong (i.e. pulled below their noses) lately. I wonder if this is because the lies and conspiracies spread about the pandemic have served their purpose—to make Trump’s handling of the pandemic appear incompetent so that Biden could present himself as being competent—and are no longer being planted by the left? The misinformation caused a lot of people to not take Covid-19 seriously.

There was a motorcyclist killed here in Florida a few months ago where the "doctor" declared he died because the china virus "may have caused the accident". I wonder if, now that not-my-president biden is in office, that death has been removed from the china virus total, as has probably many others...

That is likely rare, but hospitals do get more money for treating Covid. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization announce tougher criteria for COVID-19 diagnosis on the same day as Biden’s inauguration. Which should have been the case all along. " The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load." "..the probability that a person who has a positive result (SARS-CoV-2 detected) is truly infected with SARS-CoV-2 decreases as prevalence decreases."

One year ago today:

After the Chinese city of Wuhan halted outbound flights, trains, buses and ferries in an effort to stop the spread of a deadly new virus, 12 other cities in the province followed suit, bringing more than 36 million people under lockdown. Health officials in Chicago said a woman in her 60s had become the second U.S. patient diagnosed with the new virus; she’d returned from China in mid-January.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/today-history-75453369

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