Skip to comments.Horowitz: With no lockdown or mask mandate, Florida has roughly same hospitalization level as 2018 flu season
Posted on 01/06/2021 9:21:32 AM PST by george76
The entire pretext for shutting down our liberties is built upon misinformation..
We are being told that our liberties must be suspended in order to keep hospitals from reaching apocalyptic levels. But what if those levels are just above normal and not anywhere near apocalyptic levels? And what if these lockdown measures do nothing to keep the levels down anyway?
Well, if there is anywhere we can cross-check this hypothesis, it would be in Florida, where there is no lockdown or mask mandate. In fact, people are flocking there from out of state to enjoy vacations and host conferences and even to live. Naturally, we'd expect hospital levels to be bursting at the seams if they rise and fall with lockdowns and masks, right?
Well, actually, you can barely see an increase in the hospitalization level in the Sunshine State from previous years, and the current level appears to be on par with the 2018 flu season, which was more of a pandemic flu than other flus in recent years. And in 2018, we did nothing as a nation to suspend liberties.
There is much debate over how to count a COVID hospitalization given the rampant and unprecedented testing of people relative to past flus. But one easy way to observe an apples-to-apples comparison to past flu seasons is to compare the overall average daily census of hospitalizations now to previous years and adjust those numbers per capita to existing population. In other words, if all of the COVID patients are legitimately there because of COVID, we would see an enormous excess in the total number of people in the hospital at any given moment for any ailment. Florida is simply not seeing a gigantic increase.
Here is how the math works: HHS tracks total daily hospital levels in all the states dating back to Jan. 1, 2020. If you take the average daily total hospitalization levels in Florida for the fourth quarter of 2020, you will find an average (some days are more, some are less) of 43,150.
Naturally, I wondered what the levels were in previous years, because the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration publishes quarterly data of hospital censuses for several recent years. I started with the first quarter of 2018, which included the harshest flu season we had in a decade. If you average the total hospital census over the 90 days from Jan. 1 to March 31, it works out to 41,094 people in the hospital on an average day. Adjusting for the population at the time, that would be 1,972 hospitalizations per 1 million people. That is compared to 1,998 per 1 million for this past quarter of 2020 with COVID as the predominant illness.
As you can see, although the hospital numbers for the fourth quarter of 2020 were about 6%-8% higher than in the fourth quarter of the previous two years, it was barely higher than the first quarters of every year. The reason it is fair to compare to the worst months of previous years is because it has become clear that the flu is gone for this year and that COVID-19 is this year's version of the flu. Thus, with flu cases down 98.8%, it is reasonable to assume that the January census will not grow as it typically does during peak flu season.
In other states, lockdown proponents can theoretically suggest that the reason the hospital numbers aren't worse is because of the measures they are taking. However, Florida serves as the perfect control group, given that there is no lockdown and there have been no statewide restrictions in place for several months.
It's also important to remember that as a nation we have thrown hundreds of billions of dollars at hospitals to treat this virus as compared to past flu seasons. So, the level of hospitalization we are equipped to deal with is much higher than in the past.
Off the bat, the numbers for this past quarter are inflated because on Oct. 6, HHS updated its guidance requiring hospitals to include those in "observations beds" as part of the census. Any data from past years did not include observations beds, only inpatient beds where people stayed for over 24 hours.
Also, because the nation is panicked over this virus, unlike during the 2018 flu season, the threshold for people going to the hospital is likely much lower than in past flu seasons. While there are definitely some people who are gravely ill with this virus, we have decided to treat this virus in the hospital much more liberally than any other virus. Hospitals receive higher reimbursement rates for treating COVID-19 patients. However, many of the cases are not necessarily clinical level.
As I noted in November, hospitalization is required in order to treat someone with Remdesivir, the only FDA-approved drug, which was approved on Oct. 22. It's very likely that a certain percentage of those people are not sicker than a typical flu patient who would be treated outpatient, but the Remdesivir necessitates admission to the hospital.
Taking all these factors in totality, especially in a state like Florida with no lockdown, it has become clear that the entire pretext for shutting down our liberties is built upon misinformation and lack of context. In other words, those 900,000 projected excess deaths due to unemployment from lockdowns are all for nothing.
They are reporting almost every influenza case as COVID. The flu just did not disappear.
You know why this is?
Because it is the FLU!!!
Let’s stop pretending we can get along with our enemies.
CIVIL WAR 2.0 better hurry before PedoJoe is sworn in.
Bear in mind, one thing that may be helping with the hospitalization levels in FL is that lots of people there are out in the sun a lot, and may have high Vitamin D levels in their bodies. It is known that people with high Vitamin D levels may suffer less severe illness from covid-19 than people with low Vitamin D levels.
But if it is the same as 2018, nothing changed.
Smarter people whose government spent its time educating people on how to mitigate the spread vs. using it purely as a political weapon. Restrictions designed to mitigate the spread of disease while allowing commerce to continue vs. shutting it down entirely with no actual plan.
Competent leadership does make a difference.
Covid is not an influenza virus - it is a coronavirus. Very different things. Some symptoms are similar but a number of them are not.
Except in California where they had months to prepare but did not get its oxygen stores in order, and its prior Dem Administration Jerry Brown decided to scrap tons of emergency medical equipment in storage.
And Florida is crowded, folks. One of the reasons I left. It’s the 3rd most populous state.
That is my point, the COVID numbers are fake. They are reporting people suffering from the flu influenza virus as having COVIID. Where did all of the flu cases go? Supposedly the regular flu has "disappeared" and I call it fraud.
These draconian lockdowns serve a purpose for the leftists, their favorite saying is "Never let emergency go to waste!" Do you really think that they are going to tell us the real numbers as they lock us down, impoverish us, and steal our freedoms?
Quit being naive.
American deaths in 2020 (With Covid): 2,835,533
I have found the first number (2019) on the CDC website, but can’t seem to find a similar one for 2020. They should have had the info by January 1st. Could you point me to a link that shows the 2020 number? Not doubting you, I just try to find the info myself if I can. So far no luck. Thank you.
“American deaths in 2019 (No Covid): 2,854,838
American deaths in 2020 (With Covid): 2,835,533”
The 2020 data are not yet final. It is estimated that the final count for 2020 will be more than 3.2 million.
Someone just noted the 2020 data isn't final.
The COVID corona virus is not the same as an influenza virus as you correctly state. But why did you fail to mention that the common cold is a corona virus?
“I have found the first number (2019) on the CDC website, but can’t seem to find a similar one for 2020. They should have had the info by January 1st.”
Having worked in a Federal statistical agency early in my adult life (mea culpa), I can assure you that the statistical bureaucracy does not work that rapidly. It will probably be early in April before a final, “official” count of 2020 deaths is published.
People in Florida are careful... We do social distancing...we observe the rights of others. The difference is our Governor trust us ... We don’t have a control freak democrat rubbing his boot into our faces...
While that is true, they certainly seem to be finding a way to tell us how many “cases” and deaths from CoVid there are on a daily basis. So I think their time is about up.
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