The numbers are very suspect.
Credible researchers say, when the numbers are known, there will not be *any* increase in expected deaths.
The CDC has been very willing to publish politically motivated "studies" about guns. They published data about Kentucky accidental gun deaths that was off by a factor of 500%, when corrected, they failed to acknowledge the source of the correction.
The CDC has shown themselves willing to fudge the numbers for political purposes.
Why should I believe them?
The work of Briand is not repeatable. https://www.aier.org/article/the-censorship-of-dr-briand/ nor endorsed by the main critics of the lockdown policies. I think the main flaw in her work, as I read through the summary in the student newspaper, is that she doesn't actually compare current and past years. Her numbers are suspect and all numbers should be suspect. But those are NCHS numbers are the death numbers as reported, not just COVID, not adjusted.
The NYC numbers showed 0.25% mortality in April. Normally should be 0.07% of the population. I seriously doubt that NYC invented deaths. Over the US it's simply 11% more than normal. Chalk it up to whatever you want.