I do not think sinking a carrier would lead to nukes being used.
But devastating conventional military weapons would wreck their navy.
The Chinese study the Second World War. Japan never believed they could win a prolonged war with the United States, but they did not believe that the United States would persist in a long war after Pearl Harbor. The Japanese seriously underestimated U.S. resolve. It is a mistake that the Chinese do not intend to make. The U.S. was never the Japanese target, it was the Asian colonies of countries overrun by Germany, and those of Great Britain. The U.S. was in the way. Since the U.S. was pledged to grant independence to the Philippines, they didn’t think the U.S. would fight to regain control for a few years.