That sounds more likely- if the objective had just been to kill him it would not have been as complicated.
(Don't be put off by his ..careful ... intonation. He has a speech disorder)
Summary of his theory: based on photo analysis.
Convoy was blocked/paused with an IED (note: no IED was used on the physicist's car)
The driver was shot with tight groupings from the front. Guessing this was the work of a sniper.
Guard gets out on left side of car (right side in photo) and starts spraying UZI pistol ammo at some target. Note discarded cartridges on ground.
But there are no marks of return fire on the car. Wictor's theory is that the guard was goaded to suppress a target to the left of the convoy (to right in photos): meanwhile this target either deliberately fired high or used blanks.
Meanwhile an attacker hidden behind the high yellow/black concrete edging got up and shot the guard from behind with a shotgun. Or some sort of explosive round. Note the heavy organic splatter away from the car.
As the physicist is locked in the car (in this scenario, he is not a willing servant of the Iranian state, but a defector-in-waiting) the same attacker smashes open the rear left window of the car to engage with the locks.
(This bit I am not sure about as I don't know much about car security locks and how they can be disengaged)
Killing him is more complicated than abducting him and smuggling him out of the country?