Republicans Are On Track To Take Back The House In 2022
fivethirtyeight.com / FR Posted on 11/23/2020, 7:08:17 PM by Conserv
Although we don’t yet know the winners of some House races, we can already look ahead to the 2022 midterms and see a fairly straightforward path for the GOP to capture the House. Midterm elections historically go well for the party that’s not in the White House, and the out-of-power party is especially likely to do well in the House, since every seat is up for election (the Senate is a more complicated story).
Since the end of World War II, the presidential party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections, as the chart below shows. No matter how many seats Democrats end up with after 2020’s election — at this point, they will probably end up somewhere in the low 220s — a loss of that magnitude would easily be enough for Republicans to retake the House.
The recent history of midterms in a Democratic president’s first term seems especially promising for the GOP, too. Following Bill Clinton’s election in 1992, Democrats lost more than 50 seats in 1994, and after Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, Democrats lost more than 60 seats. If Democrats had added five to 10 seats this year, they could have survived a 20-seat loss in the midterms. Instead, Republicans will probably need to win fewer than 10 seats to gain a slender majority in 2022.
[Related: Politics Podcast: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad]
On top of this, Republicans could very well benefit from the new district lines that will be drawn ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. The GOP is set to fully control redistricting for about two-fifths of all House seats, while Democrats will only hold sway over one-tenth of them, with the remaining seats are in states with divided governments or where redistricting is done by a commission system.
The Republican line-drawing advantage should help the party draw favorable maps that could help the GOP win more seats than we might otherwise expect.
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Another of Obama's "bright ideas"....doomed to failure. Read on.
In Massive Blow To Obama and Holder, Republicans Handily Won Virtually Almost Every House Race
Key To Redistricting for Obama's dream: a permanent Dem majority
Thegatewaypundit.com ^ | November 20 2020 | Mike LaChance / FR Posted by SmokingJoe
.....one aspect of the 2020 race is being overlooked even though it’s huge. Not only did Republicans make considerable gains in the House, that no one expected, they won most of the races that will entail redistricting. This is like a double loss for Democrats Every 10 years, after the census, congressional and state legislature districts are redrawn to account for population changes. This gives whoever is drawing the maps the power to maximize the number of districts that favor their party — a tactic known as gerrymandering. And as we wrote last month, the 2020 election represented the last chance for voters to weigh in on who would draw those maps.
Both parties went into the election with a chance to draw more congressional districts than the other, but the end result was just about the best-case scenario for Republicans. As the map below shows, Republicans are set to control the redistricting of 188 congressional seats — or 43 percent of the entire House of Representatives. By contrast, Democrats will control the redistricting of, at most, 73 seats, or 17 percent.
How did Republicans pull that off? By winning almost every 2020 election in which control of redistricting was at stake… (Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...
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latimes.com
CIRCA 2019 Obama and Holder take on partisan gerrymandering with redistricting
SOURCE https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-08-27/obama-partisan-gerrymandering-redistricting-u-initiative
Aug 27, 2019 — In one of his first public political actions since he left the White House, Obama unveiled Redistricting U on Twitter as an in-person training arm ...All On The Line, launched earlier this year, is a combination of Obama's "Organizing For Action" and former Attorney General Eric Holder's "National Redistricting Action Fund."
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cnn.com
CIRCA 2019 Ex-President Barack Obama announced a new initiative that will help volunteers influence redistricting efforts in states across the country. "Redistricting U," an extension of his "All On The Line" campaign, will send trainers to provide free training and tools to volunteers about their state redistricting process, gather feedback on ways to improve their communities and teach them how to be leaders in the fair map movement, according to the initiative's website.
All On The Line, launched earlier this year, is a combination of "Obama's Organizing For Action" and former Attorney General "Eric Holder's National Redistricting Action Fund."
Obama said he has always believed "training is at the heart of organizing." "It's why I made it a priority in my 2008 campaign and throughout our larger movement for change in the years since," Obama said in a statement on the group's website.
He added, "The movement for fair maps will determine the course of progress on every issue we care about for the next decade. And we can't wait to begin organizing when the redistricting process starts in 2021. We need to build this movement from the ground up -- right now."
This is the latest effort by Obama to push for voting reform and fight against gerrymandering. The Obamas have long pushed for increased voter participation and fought against partisan gerrymandering.
2020 redistricting map.