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To: DoughtyOne
A small nitpick -- I think this is a "leftover" comment in Section 3 of your post:

Check out the Serious/Critical cases there. They went up considerably.

But from your table, the increase over 11/19 is only 278 cases, or 0.274%, which is certainly not out of line for the last 30 days.

In fact, over the last 30 days that increase has averaged 937 fatalities per day and there does not seem to be any clear acceleration in the numbers recently. (That would be an interesting curve, if some FReeper could post it.) The jog @ 11/13 is clearly a clerical abberation, driven by a huge (relatively) clerical abberation in the US numbers at that time.

Pertinent to the US, aside from 11/13 whackiness, we are seeing a somewhat accelerating rise in active* Serious / Critical cases, which works out to an increase of right at 43% in the last 30 days. Give or take a bit, but neither endpoint looks like a flaky number.

*I assume these are active S / C cases: They can't be the accumulated Serious / Critical cases. Since the increase is unevenly distributed across the country, it seems the pertinent question would be what is present reserve / spare beds' capacity (a tricky definition at best), and is patient redistribution, if needed, occurring smoothly?

5 posted on 11/21/2020 1:45:00 PM PST by Paul R. (You know your pullets are dumb if they don't recognize a half Whopper as food!)
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To: Paul R.

Yes, I was comparing the single day Serious/Critical Case
rise to the normal size of the Active Case growth. I do
that once in a while by mistake, not only in this category,
but others also. The average S/C Case growth number has
been in the 900k range, as you stated.

The average growth of Active Cases over the last 31 days
was 222,867. Here that number rose by 304k on the day,
which is larger than normal growth.

I appreciate you bringing this to my attention, so I can try
not to mistakenly describe the growth for a day in terms
that are not accurate.


6 posted on 11/21/2020 9:01:28 PM PST by DoughtyOne (I'm calling for terrorist and criminal reform. Defund them now!)
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