Posted on 11/07/2020 7:49:30 PM PST by DoughtyOne
Edited on 11/07/2020 7:54:00 PM PST by Sidebar Moderator. [history]
We’re cured! Whoo-hoo!
What’s this Covid you speak of?
Pennsylvania Nursing Home (LTC) death stats for November 7.
Data from PA Department of Health swept as of midnight November 6-7
LTC deaths = 5906 (increase of 3, maybe*)
Total deaths = 9015 (increase of 40, believable)
Cumulative LTC deaths as percentage of total = 65.5%
*”Maybe” because yesterdays LTC subset was greater than the total. The press breathlessly reported that new “cases” aka positive tests exceeded 4000 for the first time....OMG...except that IF all the numbers are correct the mortality rate is just 1.0% or slightly under. 99% of the “cases” do NOT die.
Over the week before the election, I did see some things I
didn’t like, but then I saw silly moves too that couldn’t
have helped the Left, and actually made things look better
momentarily.
So I’m not convinced they played games one way or the other.
That being said, if they were gaming things, Trump may not have been the only goal.
It may be that this is being blown up further at
this point to aid the Leftists in total control.
They can kill off business for their reset plans. They
can keep people at home. They can control movements.
This is what Leftists like to do.
“:^)
Thank you.
COVID what is it?
Thank you so much for condensing this data.
Short of a miracle, I foresee continued uncontrolled spreading.
This will lead to another round of shutdowns.
Only if the American people put up with it. Basic mathematics favors “us” over “them”. Vastly.
Uncontrolled spreading will lead to herd immunity.
The time for “containment” via “contact tracing” ended in March; the time for “containment” via lockdowns ended in April.
Those who want to bunker with Biden until their is a “safe and effective” vaccine are welcome to do so.
Let the rest of us alone!
“Short of a miracle, I foresee continued uncontrolled spreading.
This will lead to another round of shutdowns”
Absolute BS
It is to you and the rest of us here, for all the good that
will do us.
And over on CBS, they waited until NOW to run a piece on 60 Minutes about how Trump’s plan to use the military to deliver 300 million COVID-19 vaccine doses would work...
Maybe I am looking at this incorrectly?
Using the latest data on Worldometers, as I write this, the US has 243,756 fatalities from (or at least partially triggered by) COVID-19, and 6,482,816 recoveries. That works out to 3.624% fatalities out of 6726572 known resolved cases.
Because of the large number of asymptomatic cases, many of which go uncounted, I am willing to accept that 4x the number of known resolved cases are in the form of unaccounted infections (cases). I’ll go even further and assume NONE of those uncounted cases result in a COVID-19 triggered fatality. This results in a simply calculated infection fatality rate of 0.725%.
I further estimate that last number to be “too high” for projection into the future, as a good part of it comes from early on in the pandemic, and we have better treatments now. How high it is, I don’t know. If someone could pull out from the data the numbers of resolved cases and fatalities for just the last two months, a more accurate infection fatality rate projection into the future could likely be estimated.
Now, I am under no illusions as to how long recovered case immunity from COVID-19 may last — it IS a coronavirus, after all. In any event, to attain true “herd immunity” in the US, even on a temporary basis, we need to have, oh, maybe 300 million people as resolved cases in a year or so, assuming no vaccine. I think that’s a reasonable number assuming little to no mitigation.
Even if the infection fatality rate drops as low as 0.2% — this assumes 300 million cases in one year does not swamp the health care system in some periods — this results in 600k fatalities in a year. I find that much “extra” death of my countrymen and women difficult to accept, and I think it is a conservative estimate. It is also almost double what we have averaged so far.
Wouldn’t you know it. Thanks for the mention.
And over on CBS, they waited until NOW to run a piece on 60 Minutes about how Trump’s plan to use the military to deliver 300 million COVID-19 vaccine doses would work...
Needs to be added to the VERY long list of the MANY GREAT President Trump accomplishments/policies/ideas.
IFR is 0.65% per multiple studies released since May. We’ll have safe and effective vaccines in hand this year with ~150 million doses available by Q1 next year. We’re nearing the end of this thing, thanks to President Trump.
If you are familiar with all those studies (I’ve only seen a couple*), then there should be a downward trend in the IFR since May. Is there?
The IFR simply CAN’T be a fixed number while treatments are improving. That said, my 0.725% includes a lot of early cases, so, if it IS 0.65% presently, I’m pretty happy with my guesstimate.
*I’ve seen no study that gives me great confidence in the accuracy of the actual infection rate itself.
My real point, however, was unstated. I wanted to see if certain posters picked it up: Trying to achieve “herd immunity” via infections would be a very costly tactic.
IMO, your assessment of the coming vaccines is correct.
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