Baris (Big Data Polls) just updated tonight and Trump has taken the lead in PENN. Biden was up 1.3 two days ago.. Baris did a podcast with Richard Barnes today. They talked about several key counties. From Baris today.... Lackawana County is scranton, and has been close since July polling… last month this county was 52-47 Biden. Over weekend, shifted to 48-44 Trump.. Baris said thinks its the Hunter Biden story, as 80% have now heard of the story… and the rallies have helped because local news covers Trump, and older folks thats where they get their news.....
Also saying Trump is up 20 in Luzerne, which is another bellweather. I think Trump beat Hillary there by about 10 in 2016.....
Now we have Trafalger (Got PA right in 2016), Baris, Seswuanna, Insider Advantage, all with a Trump lead in PA..
In 2016, Luzerne was Trump +20 and Lackawanna was -3.
Please respond to my reply #39.
I was feeling pretty good until I saw that!
Lackawanna will be interesting. Lots of Biden signs in around Dunmore and surroundings, but recently more and more Trump signs have begun to pop up. And if you take 5 steps away its nothing but Trump. I don’t see how Biden wins PA if he can’t even get 60% from Lackawanna.
McDaniel at the RNC has published statistics about the attendees at the Pennsylvania rallies. About 30% of them did not vote in the last two elections are planning to vote for Trump tomorrow or already have. These are people that pollsters would miss because they fail to meet the requirements of a “likely voter.”
I have no way to know if the rally attendance is representative of the whole state. You can not just say +30 Trump, it doesn’t work that way, but if it translates into a +5% to Trump’s totals Biden’s position is hopeless in Pennsylvania. If the numbers in other states are similar, we’re looking at at least a 1968 level landslide.
I am not making a prediction. But, I am hopeful.
gswilder wrote:
“Baris (Big Data Polls) just updated tonight and Trump has taken the lead in PENN. Biden was up 1.3 two days ago.. Baris did a podcast with Richard Barnes today. They talked about several key counties. From Baris today.... Lackawana County is scranton, and has been close since July polling… last month this county was 52-47 Biden. Over weekend, shifted to 48-44 Trump.. Baris said thinks its the Hunter Biden story, as 80% have now heard of the story… and the rallies have helped because local news covers Trump, and older folks thats where they get their news.....
Also saying Trump is up 20 in Luzerne, which is another bellweather. I think Trump beat Hillary there by about 10 in 2016.....
Now we have Trafalger (Got PA right in 2016), Baris, Seswuanna, Insider Advantage, all with a Trump lead in PA..”
Thanks for this information!!!