Posted on 11/02/2020 1:19:14 PM PST by bort
Hmm, I wonder who this favors. There are currently 5 Florida counties that have reached 70% or higher voter turnout in early voting: Sumter(80%), Collier(77%), St. Johns(71%), Nassau(70%), and Martin(70%). Trump received roughly 65% of the vote in these counties in 2016. The next 3 highest turnout counties are also Trump counties, including Lee Co.(68%), which, along with Collier Co., is ground zero for Trump's Florida base.
By contrast, the Democrats' Big 3, Palm Beach(61%), Broward(66%), and Miami-Dade(64%) are having mediocre turnout.
Folks, if you compare the Democrats' Florida early vote pile to a deck of cards, it is a deck stacked with "legacy" Democrats, i.e., older white, working-class Democrats and retirees. Democrats who respect law enforcement and who are appalled at the AOC/Bernie wing of the Democrat Party. In short, Democrats who are not CRAZY, and a chunk of whom will cross party lines and vote for Trump.
Unless Election Day polls are overrun by hip Millennials and college students, Florida is heavy advantage Trump.
ping
Good analysis thanks.
Broken glass?
Wonder if the networks will try the stunt they did in 2000 by announcing for an hour over and over again that all polls in Florida were closed when they were in fact still open in the most conservative part of the state, and most even called the state while the polls were in fact still open - but tens of thousands didn’t show up because they were told their polls were already closed and the state had in fact already been called.
I keep being concerned about a sudden turnout of blue voters on election day, but I can’t see it happening. It’s a nightmare I can’t help, though.
When I talk to Biden voters, they really are afraid to leave their houses. They wear their mask outside. They are truly terrified of the boogieman. Their overlords and media just seem to have done too good a job of terrifying them.
And they really do seem to be low info voters. They really don’t have any real idea of what is really happening.
We’ve been getting carpet bombed with Biden ads here in St. Johns. That’s suburban Jax. I wouldn’t worry so much about Biden voter. More so 2016 Trump voters just staying home due to Chicom flu Fake News brainwashing. Trump knows it to. Every rally has a mention or two directed directedly at “suburban women.”
an indicator that negative motivation is not as strong as as positive.
Trump hate cannot motivate people (for Biden) as much as Trump enthusiasm motivates people (for Trump).
I’m actually VERY concerned about that. I expect that one or more of them might try and call the election at 4PM EST tomorrow based on “exit polls.”
Agreed. The kind of people who wallow in such levels of hatred are often depressed and low-energy. The obsess over things like politics but can't rouse the energy to do much about it.
Palm Beach County Elections website showed wait times in early voting locations. Wait times in areas where Trump might do well were 1/2 hour or more for long periods. Locations in ethnic areas - no wait at all.
Martin County is a huge Trump county. Saint Lucie County is typically blue but we haven’t seen any of the crazy shiite like the peaceful protests where they burn down buildings, blow up cars, kill people in the streets and loot the target. Wednesday might be very interesting…
I think Democrat turnout will be weak. I was laughing the yesterday at one of the twitter Democrats who indicated that there were like 400,000 0 of 4 registered Democrats we can turn out. Good luck with that. These people would have showed up in IPEV.
How does EV turnout in the Panhandle compare to 4 years ago?
Spoke with source in my key swing county in OH.
Upshot: looking exactly like 2016 when Trump flipped it and can be better.
Thanks! I was waiting for information about that county from your source. OH will pave the way for PA and MI.
If I recall correctly, there were more R votes than D votes in Florida Early Voting every day that the polls were open for IPEV.
Why would anyone expect that voting pattern to suddenly reverse on Voting Day.
I don’t. Trump will win.
“I keep being concerned about a sudden turnout of blue voters on election day, but I can’t see it happening. It’s a nightmare I can’t help, though.
When I talk to Biden voters, they really are afraid to leave their houses. They wear their mask outside. They are truly terrified of the boogieman. Their overlords and media just seem to have done too good a job of terrifying them.
And they really do seem to be low info voters. They really don’t have any real idea of what is really happening.”
Also, no campus voter campaigns. It all kind of backfired.
The GOP knows how many more voters the democrats even have to turn out at the polls, and are confident that the enemy already expended most of his ammo on mail ins.
If the GOP turn out in at least 2016 numbers...they have this. New registrations, crossovers and NP’s are icing on the cake
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