Posted on 11/02/2020 6:12:21 AM PST by 11th_VA
Philly Suburbs(PA) Early Return Ballots:545,294
23% R / 65% D / 10% NP
Age: 18-29 12% / 30-39 12% / 40-49 12% / 50-64 26% / 65+ 37%
Asian 4% / White 71% / Hispanic 3% / AfAm 5%
F 57% // M 43%
1st Time Voting/New Regs: 12%
(Excerpt) Read more at mobile.twitter.com ...
"Can you link the data? Because if these numbers are true, Dems have to be flipping shit. They got 700k D votes in those suburbs in 2016. Even if every NP goes D, that's just 400k votes."
Serious?
How do you know all the Republican voters voted for Trump and all the Democrat voters voted for Biden?
Looks like a lot of NP voters are waiting till the last minute to make up their minds about who to vote for. This is a good thing.
I can see how they determine party affiliation but how do they determine race of person submitting early ballot?
you dont, but most of the polls show a fairly equal amount of dems voting republican and vise versa, so consider it a wash.
I don’t know anything about this data - I’m just posting it
Can you explain for us folks who are new to this and aren’t good with numbers? If Dems have 65% of early voting, isn’t that a bad thing?
I guess by the color of their skin?
L2 works with some of the top academic demographic researchers in America and utilizes complex naming tables and census block data to assign likely individual and broad ethnic categories to 93%+ of voters nationwide. The “broad ethnic groups” above are the % of the early/absentee voters that fall into each of those categories.
That is what is being discussed all over the internet.
Two things to ponder:
1. #Walkaway
2. Reagan democrats
Personally, I think more democrats are going to vote for Trump than voted for Reagan.
Philly is much more white than I thought! I don’t think these numbers can be right though.
I don’t pretend to understand this particular set of data, but in general the Democrats have asked their base to vote by mail or vote early in person.
That was also their strategy in 2016.
The presumption is that if the total number of registered Democrat early voters is less in 2020 than in 2016, that is a problem for the Democrats showing less enthusiasm and likely lower total Democratic turnout.
I don’t have comparative data at my finger tips - maybe Someone else does ...
These are suburbs. The suburbs are heavily white.
This is an overwhelmingly Democrat area that should be much larger spread than it is. As was commented under the article, in 2016 Dems ammased 700,000 votes in this area, this year the numbers show only a 400,000 vote number.
You can assume 90% voting by tribe. The only crossover this election will be Dems.
If you don’t know who you are voting for one day before an election, you are an f-ing moron.
Hope the African American vote stays down, however, they like Republicans distrust the mail in vote, and we might see a large turn out on ED.
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