ByeComey, there is a bar for election day voting on the county election sites. I believe your map will default to the election day turnout or will it be incorporated into IPEV?
Here's an example from the recent primary in Walton.
“REPs - 3,404,088, DEMs - 3,512,211, lead of 108,123 for DEMs, 39.1% to 37.9%”
Gap down to 1.2 points.
Was 1.5 points on Election Eve 2016.
Republicans are closer today on a percentage basis than 2016. In all probability, Trump wins Florida.
As goes Florida, so goes the Nation.
11/2 base numbers
537,345 104,686 662,031
yesterdays Sarasota and Miami-Dade sumps today
Mail ins
Gulf/Bay counties opened for IPEV
11/2 base numbers
537,345 104,686 662,031
yesterdays Sarasota and Miami-Dade sumps today
Mail ins
Gulf/Bay counties opened for IPEV
My prediction:
Trump 51.4%
Biden 47.5%
Trump by 225,000
Prediction Florida:
1) Trump wins.
2) 5 point spread over Biden (surprising outcome)
Analysis:
1) Like the NCAA basketball tournament, I like the team with momentum. Teams with momentum always outperform. Trump definitely has momentum.
2) The Democrat “deck” is currently stacked with legacy Democrats from Sumter, SW Florida, and the Panhandle. To “unstack” this deck, the Democrats need a huge turnout of under 40 voters and minorities. I don’t think that happens.
3) Older Americans are more worried about losing their country to the leftist mob than they are about China Virus.
4) Trump pulls 42% out of Miami-Dade, and 72% out of Collier County.
Trump by a little over 2%.
my Florida prediction
is Trump wins by 184,512
Trump 49.2%
Biden 48.0%
Trump wins by 129,911, about 1.2%
Trump by 200,000
My predictions:
Trump: 50.2
Biden: 47.7
Trump wins by 265,000 votes.
Bonus prediction:
Charlie Crist loses in FL-13, the Florida upset contribution towards re-taking the house.
Wow, Speedy, those are sobering numbers, with Trump losing ground in FL compared to 2016. If that happens (FL shifting to the left), MI/WI/PA are in jeopardy.
“Everyone please chime in with a Florida prediction. I’ll go first.”
Trump 51
Biden 49
With expanded African American and Latino/Hispanic Support, as well as an overblown amount of suburbanites/old people switching to D, as well as an unprecedented level of rural, NC white votes:
Trump by 3.2%
RE: Florida
Have you seen a thread for predicting pop vote and electoral results?
Some gross numbers...
Democrats have 5,303,254 registered voters.
Republicans have 5,169,012 registered voters.
The above translates to a result of Trump 57.2 Biden 42.8.
-PJ