At this rate the lead will be 116,000 going into tomorrow.
Sensitivity Analysis FL.
2020 14M registered voters, 2016’s turnout was 75%.
9M have voted already.
That would leave 1.5M to vote tomorrow — since 75% of 14M is 10.5M.
116,000 pre-ED lead is 7.7% of the remaining 1.5M to vote ED — that’s the % lead that must be overcome, if overall turnout is 75%.
VBM can be expected to elevate overall turnout for both sides. 4% is a reasonable expectation. So of the 14M registered voters, 79% might turnout. This is 11 million voters. 9M already voted so 2 million yet to appear.
116K is 5.8% of the remaining 2M to be made up.
You can add or subtract whatever % lean you expect from Indies or cross voting to that 5.8% number. That’s the lead to be made up tomorrow.
2M is 14% of 14M. So it would be like on election night you see a 5.8% lead with 86% already in. The Repub / Dem ratio of that final 2M will need to be 56/44 to win.