Posted on 11/02/2020 5:50:51 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 663,685
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 555,562
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 108,123
Speedy: “I tried to compare Election Eve 2016 vs 2020 for NV.
“IF” I did my calculations correctly, I have
2020: Ds 39.72% - Rs 35.57% ==> Ds +4.15%
2016: Ds 42.00% - Rs 36.20% ==> Ds +5.80%
Trump lost by 2.4%
NV looks like it could be very close.”
Very close indeed. I told you I thought .5% Biden, but now my guess is flat even. From Ralston earlier today:
*******************************
[Clinton had a 73,000-ballot lead in Clark going into Election Day; Biden has a 90,000-ballot lead (at least). Do the math: Clinton ended up winning Clark by 80,000 votes.
In 2016, I underestimated Trump’s rural Nevada win — he won by 58,000 votes. This cycle, I think he will win by at least 70,000, maybe even 80,000. But unless Washoe County, which has been blue the last two cycles, goes to the president by a solid margin, he will probably need a 90,000-vote win in the rurals to win Nevada. That is virtually impossible.
About 600,000 votes left out there. Not sure how many mail ballots will be put into the system today that might make it even more difficult for the Republicans. But this much seems clear: If turnout does get to 1.4 million (80 percent and bigger than 2016), that means Trump would probably have to win Election Day by double digits, the same conundrum he faced in 2016 here. (Dems and GOP essentially tied in ballots cast on Election Day; Dems had a slight edge.)
]
*****************************************************
But after the afternoon update:
*******************************************************
SOS just posted an update, with 1.1 million voted, equal to 2016 turnout.
Will do deeper dive later,, but even with rurals in, statewide lead for Dems is 47K. That’s 4 percent or right at registration.
*******************************************************
Ralston’s original firewall, gotten by projecting the population growth from 2016, was 87,000 to be comparable.
47,000 is 3.3% of the potential vote. A 40,000 shortfall from the expected 87,000 is 2.85%.
The math is fuzzy, but if you subtract 2.85% from Clinton’s 2.4% win, you get Trump by .35%.
This is before you add in male/female ratio, enthusiasm, fewer college students, black and Hispanic, police/fire unions, and multiple Covid effects from unemployment.
I’ve fooled myself before by being overly optimistic. I think Nevada is too close to call, but not out of reach if the Trump army shows up.
I went back and read Ralston 2016 prediction.
He said (to paraphrase). No reliable polls say Trump will win Indys vs Clinton. Well exit polls say Trump won by 13 points (from memory).
His current prediction says same thing. No reliable polls say Trump will win Indys vs Biden.
Come back after the election and salute Trumps victory and then we can be friends.
VA-DAY coming.
Victory in America.
Not really in doubt, but KS Senate looks good.
“KANSAS
Trump 55% (+14)
Biden 41%
Jorgensen 3%
Hawkins 1%
#KSsen:
Marshall (R) 51% (+6)
Bollier (D) 45%
Buckley (L) 4%
@DataProgress, LV, 10/27-11/1
https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/11/2020-election-polls/toplines/dfp_ks_11.2.20.pdf";
Too bad for bjones 1 and otmal.
In last 2 days, Biden’s PA odds on PredictIT fell from 64% to 60%.
Tomorrow evening Biden under 49 cents. SELL SELL SELL
Trump doesn’t have Gary Johnson pulling 37k votes this cycle. It is going to be close.
Yup, I did think it might be psy-ops. Like Jack Posobiec saying that Biden campaign staffers have been shopping their resumes around already and Kamala has accepted going back to the Senate this week as just a Senator. Keep the other side nervous and jittery is the aim.
The debates this year going to be remembered for 1 thing.
Biden wants to end the oil/gas industry. That decision will kill his chances in PA.
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette endorsed a Republican for the first time in 50 years.
PA going into the Trump column.
VA-DAY coming.
Too bad for bjones1 and otmal.
I will say campaigns have info that they are keeping it close to the vest but usually resumes go out win or lose right before the election returns commence (Unless you have been tagged as a chosen one in case your candidate that you are working for wins but that is a small percentage).
Folks, I’m calling it a night.
Our thoughts are with those killed and injured in Vienna tonight.
God bless everyone and may we win tomorrow. May American Win Tomorrow.
Good night.
LOL. Is that your new signature?
Speaking of the effects of the debates...
Cahaly (Trafalgar) says that blacks were running in the mid teens for Trump in his polls. He had categorized that group as having a heavy amount of “shy” voters though.
About 10 days ago they started moving out of the “undecided” and “third party candidates” where they had been parking their votes and coming out openly (now 20-27% in battleground states) for Trump.
He attributes it to a combination of new black endorsements and that at the second debate Trump rolled out all the things he has done for the black community and this was the first opportunity many of them had to even hear about it.
Interesting.
I have PredictIt account and have few dollars I can bet, but the way they have their odds confuses me. I want to bet on PA for a Trump win. Should I buy a Trump win or a Biden loss?
In a fair election, Trump would win FL by 100%.
Yup, a whole bunch of wildcards in Nevada in 2020 that weren’t there in 2016.
Thanks for that info. It’s the few rappers that are leading the way for the other black males who weren’t enticed by the Blexit movement to vote Trump. Maxine Waters is very mad at the ones that have broken free of the Dem bondage. At the secret ballot box (or VBM) they will find freedom in thinking for themselves.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.