Covid Deaths Based on Population

CDC, 2020 US Census ^ | 11/01/2020 | Self

[HarleyD]

State	2020 Pop.	CASES	TOTAL AVERAGE PERCENT OF   POPULATION	LAST SEVEN DAYS AS OF 11/1/2020*	CASES PERCENT OF LAST SEVEN DAYS   TO TOTAL POP	DEATHS	TOTAL AVERAGE PERCENT OF   POPULATION	LAST SEVEN DAYS AS OF 11/1/2020*	DEATH PERCENT OF LAST SEVEN DAYS   TO TOTAL POP
Alabama	4,908,620	192,000	0.0391	1368.6	0.0003	2,967	0.0006	10.4	0.000002
Alaska	734,002	15803	0.0215	390.9	0.0005	76	0.0001	1.7	0.000002
Arizona	7,378,490	246,000	0.0333	1169.9	0.0002	5,979	0.0008	9.9	0.000001
Arkansas	3,039,000	111,000	0.0365	962.7	0.0003	1,900	0.0006	16.9	0.000006
California	39,937,500	933,000	0.0234	4214.4	0.0001	17,634	0.0004	44.4	0.000001
Colorado	5,845,530	105,000	0.0180	1837.1	0.0003	2,305	0.0004	9.9	0.000002
Connecticut	3,563,080	71207	0.0200	736.4	0.0002	4,616	0.0013	5.6	0.000002
Delaware	982,895	24751	0.0252	152.0	0.0002	704	0.0007	3.7	0.000004
District of Columbia	720,687	17266	0.0240	76.4	0.0001	646	0.0009	0.6	0.000001
Florida	21,993,000	803,000	0.0365	4062.3	0.0002	16,760	0.0008	54.3	0.000002
Georgia	10,736,100	370,000	0.0345	1834.0	0.0002	7,768	0.0007	26.3	0.000002
Hawaii	1,412,690	15145	0.0107	75.4	0.0001	215	0.0002	1.5	0.000001
Idaho	1,826,160	64175	0.0351	870.3	0.0005	627	0.0003	8.4	0.000005
Illinois	12,659,700	410,000	0.0324	5715.3	0.0005	10,014	0.0008	44	0.000003
Indiana	6,745,350	182,000	0.0270	2603.9	0.0004	4,332	0.0006	27.7	0.000004
Iowa	3,179,850	128,000	0.0403	1768.1	0.0006	1,715	0.0005	12.1	0.000004
Kansas	2,910,360	86768	0.0298	1235.1	0.0004	1,029	0.0004	7.7	0.000003
Kentucky	4,499,690	108,000	0.0240	1653.9	0.0004	1,546	0.0003	11.6	0.000003
Louisiana	4,645,180	187,000	0.0403	578.0	0.0001	5,919	0.0013	14.1	0.000003
Maine	1,345,790	6668	0.0050	67.9	0.0001	147	0.0001	0	0.000000
Maryland	6,083,120	146,000	0.0240	802.1	0.0001	4,147	0.0007	8.4	0.000001
Massachusetts	6,976,600	157,000	0.0225	1265.9	0.0002	9,975	0.0014	20.7	0.000003
Michigan	10,045,000	193,000	0.0192	3033.1	0.0003	7,664	0.0008	25.6	0.000003
Minnesota	5,700,670	146,000	0.0256	2229.0	0.0004	2,491	0.0004	17.7	0.000003
Mississippi	2,989,260	120,000	0.0401	780.0	0.0003	3,334	0.0011	12.9	0.000004
Missouri	6,169,270	190,000	0.0308	2276.7	0.0004	3,090	0.0005	35.7	0.000006
Montana	1,086,760	32801	0.0302	770.7	0.0007	376	0.0003	12.1	0.000011
Nebraska	1,952,570	69645	0.0357	1019.1	0.0005	646	0.0003	7.4	0.000004
Nevada	3,139,660	101,000	0.0322	856.3	0.0003	1,777	0.0006	5.4	0.000002
New Hampshire	1,371,250	10884	0.0079	110.3	0.0001	482	0.0004	1.6	0.000001
New Jersey	8,936,570	240,000	0.0269	1585.3	0.0002	16,350	0.0018	9.4	0.000001
New Mexico	2,096,640	45909	0.0219	820.1	0.0004	1,007	0.0005	6.7	0.000003
New York	19,440,500	512,000	0.0263	1951.6	0.0001	33,152	0.0017	15	0.000001
North Carolina	10,611,900	275,000	0.0259	2385.3	0.0002	4,397	0.0004	30.6	0.000003
North Dakota	761,723	43921	0.0577	934.9	0.0012	529	0.0007	10.3	0.000014
Ohio	11,747,700	213,000	0.0181	2833.4	0.0002	5,291	0.0005	15.3	0.000001
Oklahoma	3,954,820	123,000	0.0311	1091.3	0.0003	1,337	0.0003	13.1	0.000003
Oregon	4,301,090	44388	0.0103	433.0	0.0001	677	0.0002	3.7	0.000001
Pennsylvania	12,820,900	213,000	0.0166	2132.4	0.0002	8,883	0.0007	23.6	0.000002
Puerto Rico	3,032,160	66128	0.0218	679.9	0.0002	822	0.0003	4.1	0.000001
Rhode Island	1,056,160	32874	0.0311	393.7	0.0004	1,201	0.0011	3.4	0.000003
South Carolina	5,210,100	177,000	0.0340	1006.4	0.0002	3,935	0.0008	17	0.000003
South Dakota	903,027	45992	0.0509	1051.0	0.0012	425	0.0005	8.4	0.000009
Tennessee	6,897,580	256,000	0.0371	2532.1	0.0004	3,309	0.0005	37.7	0.000005
Texas	29,472,300	947,000	0.0321	6653.1	0.0002	18,477	0.0006	86.3	0.000003
Utah	3,282,120	113,000	0.0344	1622.6	0.0005	601	0.0002	4.9	0.000001
Vermont	628,061	2179	0.0035	19.9	0.0000	58	0.0001		0.000000
Virginia	8,626,210	181,000	0.0210	1193.6	0.0001	3,654	0.0004	14.9	0.000002
Washington	7,797,100	112,000	0.0144	814.9	0.0001	2,468	0.0003	10.3	0.000001
West Virginia	1,778,070	24460	0.0138	371.1	0.0002	457	0.0003	4.1	0.000002
Wisconsin	5,851,750	232,000	0.0396	4516.1	0.0008	2,034	0.0003	36.9	0.000006
Wyoming	567,025	13,298	0.0235	354.7	0.0006	87	0.0002	2.7	0.000005
Average	334,351,340	9,156,262	0.0274	79892.2	0.0002	230,032	0.0007		0.000000

[HarleyD]

*Numbers comes from the 2020 US Census and the CDC as of today. This chart compares the chances of contracting and dying of the Covid virus based on the population of your state. Keep in mind that many of the "Total Cases" as reported by the CDC are NOT confirmed. So the numbers are lower then what is reported.

[steve8714]

What is the header, “TO DEATHS”? It makes no sense.

[steve8714]

Oh, I see. Real numbers, inexact wording on the headers. These are ratios expressed as a decimal rather than percentages.

[polymuser]

Poorly constructed chart. Percentages shown are actually ratios and off by 100.

[polymuser]

38 seconds ;^)

[boxlunch]

Bump

[Drago]

There is “CFR” (Case Fatality Rate), then there is “IFR” (Infection Fatality Rate), now there is HarleyD’s “SPFR” (State Population Fatality Rate)! ;-) Anyway for comparison to “regular flu” let’s use the fairly bad 2017-2018 influenza season...61,000 deaths from the flu nationwide...population for the US was about 327,157,000. Thus a nationwide fatality rate of 0.000186 (.0186%). Only states with COVID19 fatality rates lower than the “regular flu” according to these thread #’s are Alaska, Maine and Vermont. Some states listed are 10x the ‘17-’18 “regular flu” rate (i.e. New Jersey).

Here is my “Top 4 All Time USA Influenza Pandemics” list:

1. 1918 USA Influenza Pandemic:
USA Population: 103,208,000
675,000 flu fatalities (est.) = 0.00654 fatalities per capita

2. 2020 USA COVID-19 Pandemic as of 10-31-2020:
USA Population: 331,002,651
236,101 COVID-19 fatalities = 0.000713 fatalities per capita

3. 1957-1958 USA Influenza Pandemic:
USA Population: 171,984,130
116,000 flu fatalities (est.) = 0.000675 fatalities per capita

4. 1968-1969 USA Influenza Pandemic:
USA Population: 200,706,052
100,000 flu fatalities (est.) = 0.000498 fatalities per capita

Sources:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/basics/past-pandemics.html

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[HarleyD]

Not sure what you mean by the percentages being off by 100. Perhaps I got my numbers off.

If the population of Alabama is 4,908,620, and there were only 2,967 deaths in the last seven days, then the percentage of death per population would be .0006. I could have calculated it as 00% but most of the numbers would have be insignificant and displayed as such. I could have displayed it as .06% but I thought that was a bit confusing. Displaying the number as .0006 and labeling it as percentage seem to be the best alternative.

The point is that it is statistically unlikely that one will contract the virus let alone die of it.

[HarleyD]

Based on the latest CDC numbers your chart would read,

5. 2020 USA Covid Pandemic:
USA Population:334,351,340
Total Cases*: 9,156,262
Fatalities: 229,007 = 0.0007 fatalities per capita

*Total Cases represents both confirmed and unconfirmed cases.

What I find interesting in basing this upon state population is how likely is a person to contract the disease and to die from it.

[polymuser]

“If the population of Alabama is 4,908,620, and there were only 2,967 deaths in the last seven days, then the percentage of death per population would be .0006.”

No, that would be 0.06 percent. One percent = 1/100th.

[bert]

In the Nevadadesert where there is no population, there is no covid death

The same is true for population less areas north of Fairbanks on the Dalton Hiway

[BitWielder1]

What are the numbers for non-covid flu and colds?
If lockdowns and masks are effective, I would expect a drastic drop compared to previous years.

[Drago]

Yep, and there is also the “undetected cases” total number too...(asymptomatic/mild...never tested...thought it was “regular flu”/recovered at home). That number results in “IFR” and that “case count” is estimated to be 12-15% of the total population or “8x-10x” the current “detected/tested” case count.

CFR, IFR will alway be off due to “cases”/total # of people infected being off.

USA 2020 population is estimated between 330,045,400 and 331,002,651 somewhere (2020 census data not calculated yet).

https://www.livepopulation.com/country/united-states.html
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/population-by-country/

[momincombatboots]

I have access to a database with millions of tests performed. These are single target positve molecular tests. After decades of lab testing i thought our false pos rate would be higher. Esp w single targets. Asymtomatic testing is positive at less than 2 percent.
The numbers dont add up in comparison to other molecular tests. Its why i will never allow a loved one to have a molecular test. Still, i thought a single target test would be closer to 12 percent false pos.

[Enterprise]

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