Here Is The Result If The Polls Are As Wrong In 2020 As They Were In 2016

Dawson County Journal ^ | 10/31/2020 | Tyler Durden

[SeekAndFind]

While very fluid, we can track the latest results of the electronic prediction markets and polling data.

PredictIt currently has a 66% probability for a Biden victory, which is up from a week ago at 62.9% and also higher than four weeks ago, although as usual one has to be aware of just how little capital needs to be deployed to manipulate the illiquid PredictIt market (something every prominent Democratic financier with deep pockets would be well aware of in seeking to manipulate public sentiment in the cheapest possible way). A Trump victory has a roughly 39% probability according to this data, which is up slightly from 37.1% a week ago. The national polls – compiled by Real Clear Politics - suggest a similar tilt in the race with Biden having a 51.3%-43.5% lead against Trump.

Digging into the state polling in competitive states, Biden currently leads in all the battleground, or "toss up" states except for Ohio, Arizona and Texas. This would give him a comfortable Electoral College (EC) victory of 346-192...

... even though RCP's average polls of Top Battleground states (FL, PA, MI, WI, NC, AZ), is now just +3.1 in Biden's favor and down from 5% to weeks ago, with Arizona just flipping to Trump in the past 24 hours.

That said, polls are imperfect as 2016 demonstrated – indeed, if we apply the polling miss from 2016 as Bank of America did last week, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Iowa and and Maine would flip. For this exercise we have used the latest RCP polling average data as of Oct 31:

• Arizona: Trump +0.6
• Florida: Biden +1.2
• Michigan: Biden +6.5
• North Carolina: Biden +1.2
• Pennsylvania: Biden +3.7
• Wisconsin: Biden +6.4
• Georgia: Biden +0.8
• Iowa: Biden +1.2
• Maine 2: Biden +2.7
• Minnesota: Biden +4.7
• Nebraska-2: Biden +7.8
• Nevada: Biden +4.0
• Ohio: Tie
• Texas: Trump +2.3

These numbers are then adjusted by applying the same error rates as were observed during the 2016 polling, and the results are shown in the table below:

Remarkably, if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Trump would win with 279 of the 538 electoral votes, while Biden would get 259.

Still, the margin of victory would be within 0.5 percentage points in Wisconsin (for Biden) and Georgia (for Trump), which would trigger an automatic recount and delay results. In addition, the margin in Pennsylvania and Florida would be less than 1.0%, likely resulting in a bitter post-election night fight and contested outcomes.

In short, no matter what happens on Nov 3, expect recounts and extensive delays before we have a clear winner.

Putting this together, Bloomberg said it best: "All of that means a Trump win on Tuesday would represent a historically staggering failure by public opinion polls, eclipsing even the 2016 miss. While the president’s chances of being re-elected aren’t zero, pollsters say it’s a long shot."

“If Donald Trump wins, in 2020, anything close to a decisive Electoral College win knowable on election night, that would have repercussions for the research profession that would ripple forever -- and deservedly so,” said Jay Leve, chief executive officer of SurveyUSA, a polling firm.

As Bloomberg notes, Level and other pollsters say the election outcomes range from a blowout Biden win to a closely fought contest that could hinge on recounts and court rulings that either candidate could win. They don’t consider a clear, quick and decisive Trump victory among the possibilities.

“It would be astonishing,” Leve said.

[ConservativeMind]

Honestly, I think Donald Trump is looking at over 400 EV, possibly to even 440.

I look through those states and I think Biden gets all the states leaning toward him, but all but two toss up states should likelybgo to Trump, and all of the ones that lean Trump will go to Trump.

These people are going to go nuts with the size of what is coming from the Trump Wave.

[Deplorable American1776]

Bartender, may I have what they are drinking?

[simpson96]

“What are these people smoking?”

My exact thought. That’s a whole lot of wishin’ and hopin’.

[DrDude]

I was following RCP as far back as 2000. They have perdected their own agenda by 2012. Average polls include anything they want and go back as far as they want. Then the poll nias.

I liked their interactive map a few terms ago. Now I just lurk there once in a while. Notice also, the polls rarely let you see the internals. Paywall and all.

[DrDude]

I was following RCP as far back as 2000. They have perdected their own agenda by 2012. Average polls include anything they want and go back as far as they want. Then the poll nias.

I liked their interactive map a few terms ago. Now I just lurk there once in a while. Notice also, the polls rarely let you see the internals. Paywall and all.

[Track9]

I dont understand what 65 cent bidon to 40 cents DJT means. If i buy what i guess is a share of 40 cents DJT and he wins, whats the return?
Thanks in advance for any input.

[catnipman]

“I dont understand what 65 cent bidon to 40 cents DJT means. If i buy what i guess is a share of 40 cents DJT and he wins, whats the return? Thanks in advance for any input.”

you always get $1.00 back per share if you win (if you lose, you get nothing back), so if you buy shares at 65¢, if you win, your profit will be 35¢/share (less fees and eventually taxes, as they’ll send you a 1099 form for gambling winnings or losses)

the whole thing is much like buying and selling shares of stock that always have a face value of $1.00.

i wrote the following to another FReeper a while back:

Basically, what you’re doing is that you’re always buying $1.00 shares at a discount. Most markets are usually YES/NO shares, so you’re buying and selling either YES shares or NO shares, but in all cases shares are worth a dollar IF YOU win no matter what you pay.

IF you win, you’ll always get back $1.00 for each share you bought no matter what, and your personal profit will be the difference between the $1.00 you get back minus what you paid for the share, so the main thing to keep in mind is that you always get back a dollar IF you win, no matter how much you paid for the share. Which also basically means it’s hardly worthwhile to bet on sure winners if, for example, you have to pay .99 cents a share ... in fact, you would ultimately lose money because predictit.org takes 10% of your profit and 5% of any amount you ultimately have them send you back.

To actually place a bet (buy shares):

1. You’ll need to establish an account with predictit.com

2. After you establish your account (loginID, password, name, address, etc.), you then FUND the account with the amount you want to bet by depositing money in the account paid for with your credit card. (Basically, you don’t want to deposit more money than you’re planning on betting at the time because they take 5% when you withdraw, so if you want to bet again, then simply deposit more funds.)

3. In your case, you’ll want to buy YES shares for Trump to win.

4. Divide the best offer that others are willing to sell you YES shares for by the amount you deposited, and then fill in the nearest whole number of shares you can pay for from your deposited funds after you click “BUY YES”

5. Once you’ve bought shares, you can actually sell them at any time, taking a loss or a profit, depending on how the market moved after your purchase. I plan to hold my shares until the end for maximum profit (or loss).

6. Also, note that there are multiple nearly identical markets in some cases , such as which party will win the Presidency, will the VP be female, etc., which is useful for anyone wanting to be more than the maximum per market.

7. Bottom line, it IS confusing! And not being a gambler and having zero past experience in betting, I studied the whole setup very carefully for at least three days before attempting to bet. It’s also a good idea to study this FAQ:

https://www.predictit.org/support/faq

[Track9]

Very helpful!!

Thanks for the reply. Best President Eva.. T minus 2. Go DJT!!

[catnipman]

“Very helpful!! Thanks for the reply.”

as they say in Vegas: “Good Luck, Sir!”