Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Final "Gold Standard" Selzer Iowa Poll has Trump +7, same margin as 4 years ago which foreshadowed Rust Belt Sweep
NY Times ^

Posted on 10/31/2020 4:36:51 PM PDT by springwater13

Trump leads the final Selzer poll of Iowa by 7 points, 48 to 41.

That's the same margin as their final poll four years ago, which wound up foreshadowing Trump's Midwestern sweep

(Excerpt) Read more at twitter.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-42 next last
To: Robert357
WaPo still whistling past the graveyard.

Signs may point to a Biden victory, but some Democrats can’t shake memories of 2016


21 posted on 10/31/2020 5:45:17 PM PDT by Bratch (If liberty means anything at all, it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: springwater13

Iowa falling into place. Wonderful.


22 posted on 10/31/2020 5:47:17 PM PDT by plushaye (God wins! Anarchy begone in Jesus Name!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: springwater13

DUmmies freaking out a bit over this poll; they calmed down when Nate Silver weighed in that this is an outlier poll.


23 posted on 10/31/2020 5:49:32 PM PDT by CassieL (Mostly a lurker here since the Blue Dress)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CassieL

Nate Siler will be eating crow on Tues!


24 posted on 10/31/2020 5:52:20 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: USS Alaska

Horse tranquilizer?! Just declare an evening devoted to the memory of Sean Connery, whom we lost today. How do you do that? Easy: shaken, not stirred.


25 posted on 10/31/2020 6:08:19 PM PDT by MrChips ("To wisdom belongs the apprehension of eternal things." - St. Augustine I donÂ’t think we need one)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]

To: conservativepoet

Hillary is still wondering what happened to her 14-point lead at the end of October, 2016. She even wrote a book about it. LOL.


26 posted on 10/31/2020 6:10:50 PM PDT by Deo volente ("When we see the image of a baby in the womb, we glimpse the majesty of God's creation." Pres. Trump)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: springwater13

Nothing is in the bag. Though I admit, the MSM sure does seem depressed.


27 posted on 10/31/2020 6:15:31 PM PDT by JamesP81 (The Democrat Party is a criminal organization.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: CassieL

silver is lying if he is saying this poll is an outlier.


28 posted on 10/31/2020 7:17:20 PM PDT by LongWayHome
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: Sarah Barracuda

Polls will surely continue to tighten but so many people have already voted. Are they counted in the polls as likely voters?


29 posted on 10/31/2020 7:43:43 PM PDT by Atticus
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: CassieL; fortheDeclaration; LongWayHome
Peoples_Pundit
Peoples_Pundit
·
31 Peoples_Pundit
Peoples_Pundit
·
31 Oct
Riddle me this...

I was a loser in my own industry and was thrown out for being a failure.

Now I pretend to be a “guru” in another industry I know nothing about. But a whole lot of rich people fund my failures and help me cover it up...

Who am I?

Answer: Nate Silver. Nate Silver is the biggest fraud in the polling business.

30 posted on 10/31/2020 7:54:19 PM PDT by SmokingJoe
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: LongWayHome

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
2h
I do think people overthink things some times. In an 800-person poll, the margin of error for the difference between candidates is ~7 points. And 1 in 20 polls will fall outside that margin of error, i.e. be more than 7 points away from the true number.
180
291
2.4K

Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
·
2h
Now, in practice, pollsters may sit on their outliers or rejigger them rather than publish as in. But *good* pollsters like Selzer or ABC/WaPo *do* go with their numbers. So you’ll get the occasional Biden +17 in WI or Trump +7 in IA.


31 posted on 10/31/2020 8:01:11 PM PDT by CassieL (Mostly a lurker here since the Blue Dress)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: CassieL

I’m not buying this. This polling group is too good & reproduced the same results from 2016.


32 posted on 10/31/2020 8:08:29 PM PDT by LongWayHome
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 31 | View Replies]

To: LongWayHome

Nate Silver
“@NateSilver538
·
44s
One thing I *don’t* care about too much is the last round of national polls. National polls are basically useful for seeing movement when you don’t have a lot of state polls. But we have plenty of state polls and (Selzer aside) no particular reason to think there’s much movement.”

IMO Silver is in CYA mode, however, I don’t want to let polls or crowd size give me a false sense of comfort.


33 posted on 10/31/2020 8:13:27 PM PDT by CassieL (Mostly a lurker here since the Blue Dress)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: Bell407Pilot

I’m with you. I loved all the 2016 next-day YouTube videos of libs melting down. For the life of me, I could never figure out why anyone would think it’s a good idea to film themselves at their emotional worst, then put it online for the whole world to see. I’m glad many did, though, because they’ve given me endless entertainment.


34 posted on 10/31/2020 8:29:57 PM PDT by Kharis13
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: CassieL

The polls that “caught” the Trump phenomenon in 2016 are showing the same thing in 2020. We will know Tuesday evening, maybe.


35 posted on 10/31/2020 8:30:51 PM PDT by LongWayHome
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Impy; fieldmarshaldj; Coop; BillyBoy; campaignPete R-CT

Back in September, some of you may recall that I expressed that, for the first time all year, I had seen something that made me think that perhaps Donald Trump would not get reelected and that the Democrats would take the Senate: It was the Selzer poll of Iowa, which found that both Trump and Joni Ernst were down by a few points in Iowa. While I have no confidence in the predictive value of 99% of polls in this day and age, particularly when there is a social stigma to admitting that one will vote for Donald Trump and other Republicans, the Selzer poll of Iowa has long been the Gold Standard of polling. If Ann Selzer found that Trump and Ernst were down a couple of points in Iowa, then, I assumed, the truth couldn’t be that far removed from such finding. And if Trump and Ernst were struggling to stay afloat in Iowa, then Trump and the GOP Senate candidates would be even further behind in the Rust Belt states.

Well, Selzer’s new poll of Iowa has Trump up by 7% and Ernst up by 4%. That result not only portends a comfortable victory for Trump and Ernst on Tuesday—remember, the final Selzer poll in 2016 showed Trump up by 6% and he ended up winning Iowa by 9.4%, and the final Selzer poll of the 2014 Iowa Senate also understated the GOP margin by a couple of points—but it is entirely consistent with Trump having a good chance of winning WI, MN, MI and PA (and for GOP Senate candidates Lewis and James having a good chance of winning their races in MN and MI, respectively).

That sound that you hear is all of those complacent Leftists soiling their pants right now.


36 posted on 10/31/2020 10:02:55 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll defend your rights?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Impy; fieldmarshaldj; Coop; BillyBoy; campaignPete R-CT

Oh, I forgot to mention, that September Selzer poll found that Biden was leading among Independents by a 12% margin; the new Selzer poll found that Trump had regained support from Independents, and that Trump was ahead among such voters by a 14% margin. That’s a 26-point swing in less than two months! Biden’s disappearing act and (when he does stick his head out of his basement) lurch to the Left, and the MSM running interference for Biden by trying to block news stories that could hurt him, have backfired bigtime.


37 posted on 10/31/2020 10:07:35 PM PDT by AuH2ORepublican (If a politician won't protect innocent babies, what makes you think that he'll defend your rights?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: AuH2ORepublican

Yea the democrat meltdown started after the Iowa poll was released. Nate Silver trying to calm them down, saying its an outlier.... (but that WI Biden+17 isnt?)

Atlas polling (dont know much about them). have several new polls out tonight, with Trump up in WISC and PA.

ABC/Wapo has Floria a “toss up” with Trump +2... but “Strong” Biden lead in PA with Biden +7...

Polling what a mess.


38 posted on 10/31/2020 10:09:07 PM PDT by gswilder
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: AuH2ORepublican; Coop; CatOwner; campaignPete R-CT

I do recall, though I was not familiar with this pollster your words sent a shiver up my butt.

I like our chances in CD-1 and CD-2 as well (not so sure in CD-3 with Des Moines and suburbs)

I’ve compared Biden to Dewey, trying not to lose instead of trying to win....


39 posted on 10/31/2020 11:31:30 PM PDT by Impy (Thug Lives Splatter - China delenda est)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 36 | View Replies]

To: AuH2ORepublican

https://cbs2iowa.com/news/local/dramatic-shift-in-latest-iowa-poll-indicates-trouble-for-rep-finkenauer-other-democrats

The polls asks party preference rather than specific candidates?

Anyway, I obviously don’t think that margin CD-1 is spot on but it has us up in CD 1 (15!) and CD 2 (1 point!!!) rats up 6 in CD-3.


40 posted on 10/31/2020 11:48:27 PM PDT by Impy (Thug Lives Splatter - China delenda est)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-42 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson