Posted on 10/31/2020 4:36:51 PM PDT by springwater13
Iowa falling into place. Wonderful.
DUmmies freaking out a bit over this poll; they calmed down when Nate Silver weighed in that this is an outlier poll.
Nate Siler will be eating crow on Tues!
Horse tranquilizer?! Just declare an evening devoted to the memory of Sean Connery, whom we lost today. How do you do that? Easy: shaken, not stirred.
Hillary is still wondering what happened to her 14-point lead at the end of October, 2016. She even wrote a book about it. LOL.
Nothing is in the bag. Though I admit, the MSM sure does seem depressed.
silver is lying if he is saying this poll is an outlier.
Polls will surely continue to tighten but so many people have already voted. Are they counted in the polls as likely voters?
I was a loser in my own industry and was thrown out for being a failure.
Now I pretend to be a “guru” in another industry I know nothing about. But a whole lot of rich people fund my failures and help me cover it up...
Who am I?
Answer: Nate Silver. Nate Silver is the biggest fraud in the polling business.
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
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2h
I do think people overthink things some times. In an 800-person poll, the margin of error for the difference between candidates is ~7 points. And 1 in 20 polls will fall outside that margin of error, i.e. be more than 7 points away from the true number.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
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2h
Now, in practice, pollsters may sit on their outliers or rejigger them rather than publish as in. But *good* pollsters like Selzer or ABC/WaPo *do* go with their numbers. So you’ll get the occasional Biden +17 in WI or Trump +7 in IA.
I’m not buying this. This polling group is too good & reproduced the same results from 2016.
Nate Silver
“@NateSilver538
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44s
One thing I *don’t* care about too much is the last round of national polls. National polls are basically useful for seeing movement when you don’t have a lot of state polls. But we have plenty of state polls and (Selzer aside) no particular reason to think there’s much movement.”
IMO Silver is in CYA mode, however, I don’t want to let polls or crowd size give me a false sense of comfort.
I’m with you. I loved all the 2016 next-day YouTube videos of libs melting down. For the life of me, I could never figure out why anyone would think it’s a good idea to film themselves at their emotional worst, then put it online for the whole world to see. I’m glad many did, though, because they’ve given me endless entertainment.
The polls that “caught” the Trump phenomenon in 2016 are showing the same thing in 2020. We will know Tuesday evening, maybe.
Back in September, some of you may recall that I expressed that, for the first time all year, I had seen something that made me think that perhaps Donald Trump would not get reelected and that the Democrats would take the Senate: It was the Selzer poll of Iowa, which found that both Trump and Joni Ernst were down by a few points in Iowa. While I have no confidence in the predictive value of 99% of polls in this day and age, particularly when there is a social stigma to admitting that one will vote for Donald Trump and other Republicans, the Selzer poll of Iowa has long been the Gold Standard of polling. If Ann Selzer found that Trump and Ernst were down a couple of points in Iowa, then, I assumed, the truth couldn’t be that far removed from such finding. And if Trump and Ernst were struggling to stay afloat in Iowa, then Trump and the GOP Senate candidates would be even further behind in the Rust Belt states.
Well, Selzer’s new poll of Iowa has Trump up by 7% and Ernst up by 4%. That result not only portends a comfortable victory for Trump and Ernst on Tuesday—remember, the final Selzer poll in 2016 showed Trump up by 6% and he ended up winning Iowa by 9.4%, and the final Selzer poll of the 2014 Iowa Senate also understated the GOP margin by a couple of points—but it is entirely consistent with Trump having a good chance of winning WI, MN, MI and PA (and for GOP Senate candidates Lewis and James having a good chance of winning their races in MN and MI, respectively).
That sound that you hear is all of those complacent Leftists soiling their pants right now.
Oh, I forgot to mention, that September Selzer poll found that Biden was leading among Independents by a 12% margin; the new Selzer poll found that Trump had regained support from Independents, and that Trump was ahead among such voters by a 14% margin. That’s a 26-point swing in less than two months! Biden’s disappearing act and (when he does stick his head out of his basement) lurch to the Left, and the MSM running interference for Biden by trying to block news stories that could hurt him, have backfired bigtime.
Yea the democrat meltdown started after the Iowa poll was released. Nate Silver trying to calm them down, saying its an outlier.... (but that WI Biden+17 isnt?)
Atlas polling (dont know much about them). have several new polls out tonight, with Trump up in WISC and PA.
ABC/Wapo has Floria a “toss up” with Trump +2... but “Strong” Biden lead in PA with Biden +7...
Polling what a mess.
I do recall, though I was not familiar with this pollster your words sent a shiver up my butt.
I like our chances in CD-1 and CD-2 as well (not so sure in CD-3 with Des Moines and suburbs)
I’ve compared Biden to Dewey, trying not to lose instead of trying to win....
The polls asks party preference rather than specific candidates?
Anyway, I obviously don’t think that margin CD-1 is spot on but it has us up in CD 1 (15!) and CD 2 (1 point!!!) rats up 6 in CD-3.
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