Posted on 10/31/2020 5:48:13 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 644,202
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 528,151
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 116,051
Silver:
“Man, Democrats’ anxiety levels is off the charts. Which, of course. But it’s a good night to have a glass of wine or whatever and chill out about the polls. It’s pretty unlikely that the overall polling outlook is going to look much different on Tuesday morning than it does now.”
D VBM return rate is 77.5%. This morning was 76.0%
R VBM return rate is 76.3%. This morning was 74.6%.
1.2 point gap.
Last Sunday was pretty busy. Ds may add another 1-1.5 to their rate tomorrow.
One twitter Dem/Dim.
“I’ve been crying for the last 45 minutes.”
More Dem/Dims:
“I’ve smashed every plate I own.”
“Same. So sick to my stomach.”
“Follow @Redistrict. He’ll talk you down. Yes, there is a chance Trump can win, but it is small. Even if the polls are as wrong as 2016, Biden still wins by a small margin. We’re all freaking out. Breath. Make some calls for @PodSaveAmerica
. We’ll get through this!”
And this is just from 1 positive Trump poll.
Just imagine Election Night!
Are you all getting the sense that the dam is about to break & people are going,”What the hell. Give him another 4.”?
This could get ugly fast.
Besides Freerepublic, what else are you going to be watching/ following Tuesday night?
My guess is they just follow their leader Silver...
People want to vote for the winner. The media has been trying, desperately, to tell us that Biden is the clear winner. I don’t think casual observers think that any more.
We know facts on the ground (voting in FL, NC, AZ) show no landslide. Rs are fighting it out.
Key in the DMR poll was independents. Trump leads 49% to 35%.
This goes against the Polls which says Indys favor Biden.
Indys could delivery NV, MN, NH.
This feels so much like right before the 2016 Election.
And likely has the same result.
Byecomey’s map during the day when I get breaks. When IN and KY close at 6 Eastern, will be checking my swing counties. Laporte, Porter, St. Joseph, Tippecanoe and Vigo in Indiana. Franklin in KY. Fayette is blue in KY but I want to see how well Trump does there.
Exactly.
I’ll be on JoeIsDone the whole day until polls close.
We will have great numbers to tell how Florida goes.
Florida is key for Trump.
In the evening, I usually watch Fox and I’ll have Larry’s website on my computer.
FR can sometimes be slow. Depending onthe response rate, I’ll be here also.
A man with a plan.
I define landslide by 300 or over. And not by giant margins but by a wide # of states all going the same way by small margins.
That is a massive indie lead. Without even considering crossovers, if accurate that could also deliver ME, CO, VA and NM.
The more I think about when all is said and done the dem lead could be higher then what are many expecting by 20K or so
Because not only do mail ins arrived on Election Day count as the early vote
What about any that arrive after Election Day that are postmarked on time?
When is the FL cut off date to stop counting?
Also what if it gets postmarked on Election Day itself ? I assume those count?
Anyone know?
Thanks. But like I say, I have never run a successful or unsuccessful presidential campaign. I don't have to understand it. I am certainly less nervous now than I was 3-4 days ago.
If you are referring to coop’s contest, we don’t know VBM Election day numbers until after the election.
For the contest, we should just pick Monday morning or Tuesday morning.
As for the total EV number we are going to “catalog” to use in 4 years, that will include VBM delivered on Election Eve and Election Day.
I will update my website with a “preliminary” final Dem lead number and modify it later on. Florida will do canvassing and other updates to their count. Ballots are “found”, etc.
For example, the 96,450 Dem lead for 2016 on my website that was some other number initially. After Florida came out with numbers officially several days/weeks after the election, I updated the number to exactly match their.
Florida is key for Trump
——//
Are we going to have a FL live thread on election night?
I plan to have a news blackout and only focus on FL
Might follow a FL thread if it doesn’t have any other state spoilers
Why only FL?
1) trump needs it to win for sure as far as the 29 votes and National trends , if not game over
2) if he is one par with 2016 then it will be close in PA, Mi and Wi
3) if he is trending higher then 2016 then odds are he wins
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