Posted on 10/31/2020 5:48:13 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 644,202
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 528,151
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 116,051
I would guess you look at total registration and start with 2016’s 75% turnout. That would be a reasonable first estimate.
FL registered 14.065M. 75% would be 10.5M. So the elections official is looking for 79%. VBM is generally accepted as increasing overall turnout and thus, 4% over 2016. Reasonable.
Still need final Clark IPEV and Nye as well. Should knock another 3500-4k off the lead.
2016 United States presidential election in Florida:
We’re going to walk into ED down 3-4% of remaining votes. About 2.5M out of 11. So it would be like seeing down 3.5% with 78% if the vote already in.
Reps do much better on election day, but the lower the burden, the better. Meaning hold them down tomorrow and Monday and for sure have more than 2.5M votes come in Tuesday.
Life is good. Have a cocktail. :-) I am enjoying an adult beverage from America’s oldest brewery right now.
Unless all the early voting just devastated election day turnout. (Hope not!)
I just had a Lager myself. Bottoms up!
There are other counties that will continue early voting; some could be GOP friendly. I’ll leave that for someone else to research.
NOT SURE IF YOU SAW THIS I POSTED THURSDAY EVENING
note last couple of days Miami-dae has been +500 D IPEV
I am sure I made some minor mistakes and typos but:
what if today was Sunday and only the counties opened then voted with todays data>
keep in mind I am not sure what counties were opened 2020 vs 2016 the Sunday before election day
if more Rep counties are opened this year those votes may be lost election day votes this year
Dems won early in person voting that day by 52,000ish votes
but alot of those votes are already
difference between in person voting yesterday and today
Broward +4164 D
Orange +616 D
lean +464 D
Gads +236 D
hillsbor +1717 R
pinel. +1566
Mantne. +1811
charelt +1265
volsia. +1740
Bay. +2053
Duval. +1388
Palm b. +1623
Miami-d. +384
6 other small red counties +1485
so R +10,318 in person votes today in the match up of Sunday opened counties
but it gets better
Two Big ones: Polk and Sarasota have no data yet to compare
so if there was no “souls to the polls” D-push in the data
Rep would have eon todays in early person voting at least by 10,318
and the overall net day of day +2-3K
Sadly, my lager is no longer. I may have to procure another.
But are you saying that all those counties you listed will be voting on Sunday and Monday? Not sure I’m following you.
Haha. I highly recommend that you do. By Tuesday night when I get home from working at my polling place, I will have moved on to Scotch.
Not in the bag yet. Way too many uncertainties and I wouldn’t compare it to 2016 as I think the enthusiasm gap is much larger this time. Last time it was the first woman President and she was more popular than Byedone. I think polling is way off.
I’m cautiously optimistic. Win in Florida and it’s basically game over. Trump will peel off one or more rust belt states and has a good shot at NV.
No those are opened Sunday
Bay and gulf only counties statewide opened Monday
91,463.
Still moving backwards.
Should I root for 120k tomorrow so I win or Rs to make more headway?
Tough call.
Our work here at FR (well Speedy/Bort/Janet/ByeComey/LS, and others) and the Dems keeping track and they’ve sent out the alarm. They may be turning in extra mail in ballots, especially in Miami-Dade. My theory is that their reaction is impacting the numbers. They are reacting to our several days of good days. I’m not sure if everything is legitimate — if there are some on the ground in Florida, please help to make sure this election is fair.
According to TargetSmart, in Florida there are approximately 2 million early votes cast by those who did not vote in Florida in 2016. Almost 42% (856K) of these 2016 non-voters were whites without a college degree. College-educated whites make up another 20% of the 2016 non-voters.
That’s a stunning figure for a state that is turning “browner” every year. Gee, I wonder what’s prompting the turnout of working-class voters?
Perhaps many R voters would rather be enjoying the Halloween weekend with their families, than standing in a socially distanced voting line. They know they have 2 more days left to vote.
Well, that’s good news. Dems may make some gains tomorrow, but we might return the favor on Monday.
Tough call, but I’d rather make more headway.
It will be psychologically valuable to say D lead this year is less than 96k of 2016.
That’s good of you to forfeit the cash prize for the good of our country. God bless you, sir!
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