Posted on 10/31/2020 5:48:13 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 644,202
In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 528,151
Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 116,051
Does anyone know if the ballot count includes invalid ballots ?
I presume that is done when they are counted Tuesday ?
Then I’ll use the old calculator.
Right now Ds and Rs are pretty close in over all turnout.
Ds ahead in raw numbers because more registered voters.
Drifting comes to mind.
3:08 pm
last 3 updates
+1095 - 835 = +260 Ouch!
+1025 -(-4) = +1029
+1029 -219 = +810
average 700 per update
REP IPEV + not great and Dems doing damage with mail ins
Reps need +1010 each of the next 9 updates to hit
+31K on the day and the last update will be lite so the first few need to be heavy
+900 to hit 30K
Is there an update of THESE numbers? The others are confusing me.
It’s saying something when we think 30K is a bad day!
D VBM return rate is 77.2%. This morning was 76.0%
R VBM return rate is 76.0%. This morning was 74.6%.
1.2 point gap. Smallest gap so far, he says again.
At least drifting in right direction.
D VBM return rate is 77.2%. This morning was 76.0%
R VBM return rate is 76.0%. This morning was 74.6%.
1.2 point gap. Smallest gap so far, he says again.
but that was for yesterday which may explain why Dems mail ins
were tempered at +6100ish
the gap likely increased today judging by the uptick of DEM mail ins which is +8K as of now
correct?
Rs down in AZ by just 23k now.
But up by 8k in Maricopa County.
https://www.saguarostrategies.com/arizona-ballot-returns
I have Ds up 5,864 VBM so far today.
644,202 to 650,066
Drifting off their shoulder ready to pass
yes watch for updates-now As of now, D lead = 94455 and is decreasing fast, despite D requested 811k more VBM ballots.
in 2016 it was over 100k lead on election day
or
https://twitter.com/athein1/with_replies
For the record. Not to argue with Florida Man who says we’ve been wrong on Miami-Dade and know nothing.
Ravi and I were the first 2 people here (that I know of) who called out Miami for outperformance this year.
This post is from Oct 1st. 1 Month ago. About 4 weeks before the media jumped on the Miami D problem.
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3889629/posts
Post 1 by Ravi: “Prediction: 2020 Trump will do better than 2016 Trump in Miami-Dade when he won 34.07% of the vote.”
Post 13 by Speedy: “Prediction: Trump will win a higher percentage of the vote in Miami-Dade than Palm Beach. Trump Palm Beach 2016 was 41.13%.”
That was 1 month ago. Not to argue, but to post facts.
It’s saying something when we think 30K is a bad day!
last 2 updates
+895 - 360 = +535
+716 - 163 = +553
R+ 22,734 for the day
assuming +250 slop over after 6pm the net 7 updates average
if IPEV +400 then 25,784
if IPEV +500 26,484
If IPEV +600 27,184
if IPEV +700 27,884
if IPEV +800 28,584
I have Ds up 5,864 VBM so far today.
644,202 to 650,066
Byecomeys site had 641,873 at 5am and 650066 now
I have to go wash some dishes so I don’t fall asleep while drifting.
But I start with DOE official numbers from 8:30am.
Thats why we are always slightly different.
“Byecomeys site had 641,873 at 5am and 650066 now”
Byecomey won’t have Miami numbers at 5am will he?
I assume he also updates with the DOE 8:30am report???
But I start with DOE official numbers from 8:30am.
Thats why we are always slightly different.
yeah...I thought so
perhaps it has to do with when/how Miami-Dade gets counted?
it’s all good because it all evens out in the end :)
but I can tell Mail in’s are stronger today because they are eating into the IPEV Rep gain every update much more then other days
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