Florida Early Vote update, 10/31/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/31/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 644,202

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 528,151

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 116,051

[SpeedyInTexas]

96k includes all early votes.

No election day in person voting.

I do THINK VBMs that are turned in on election eve or election day are in VBM pile that we call “early votes” generally.

[janetjanet998]

looks like DEM mail in lead is much better today

I had them at +5K on the day after a +6K yesterday

already at +5018 on the day

and the past few days they had am ail in surge in 1-3pm today is earlier , hopefully that just shifted today and won’t be consistent for the next few hours

many +150 plus net gains all day per update and some much larger above 500

1:08 update

+1497 -347 = +1150
+1380 -608 = +752 (ouch)
+1125 -784 = +441 (yikes)

[plushaye]

PA polling - Richard Baris (@peoples_pundit) got 2016 right. Now his gut feel is PA is leaning Trump.

1 hour ago
Peoples_Pundit
@Peoples_Pundit
Replying to @Duke_Libertas
I did see it!

The two have traded leads in Lackawanna over the last two months, but last two nights came in Trump 47, Biden 42.

Bucks is Biden 53, Trump 46. Lot of uncertainty in the polling. But yes, my gut is telling me that Pennsylvania is leaning Trump.

[SpeedyInTexas]

Maybe break 2016s 96,450 D lead with next update.

[Ravi]

Sumter Reps at 81.2% turnout. I think they hit 90% by election evening. This is how you outscore your opponent.

[dfwgator]

Remember the huge turnouts Trump got in the primaries although he ran unopposed, that’s also a “tell”.

[plushaye]

Richard Baris (@peoples_pundit) about “leaners” in their state polls and who they might break towards:

https://twitter.com/Peoples_Pundit/status/1322573154598948866

In short: “leaners” in MN always looked good for Trump and “leaners” in AZ started looking good for Biden, now better for Trump

[Ravi]

Whoa. UMICHVOTER just updated and has us only 0.2% behind in overall turnout. 62.5% to 62.3%.

[Ravi]

Yep that August 18th FL primary was a definite tell.

[Chgogal]

Bookmark

[janetjanet998]

no “1:28” update yet...

about 15 min late on my end

[JerseyRepub]

He has included Polk in his updates. I think byecomey hasn’t updated his with Polk. Hence he’s showing better numbers for us.

[southpaw1]

Yeah, I think its stuck.

[janetjanet998]

is youR site down?

no updates for 45 mins (stuck on 549603 R lead IPEV)

[Ravi]

Thanks!

[Cathi]

Wisconsin Early Ballot Returns Show GOP Now Ahead 8-Points

https://www.toptradeguru.com/news/wisconsin-early-ballot-returns-show-gop-ahead-8-points/

[SpeedyInTexas]

Some thoughts as we enter the home stretch and a question for byecomey.


Election Eve

Monday morning, everyone please post your Florida predictions. Don't be shy. If you are dead right, we won't hold it against you.

I've had my prediction formula in mind for 1 month. It is
(81.2% * Registered Rs) MINUS
(D VBM return rate on Election Eve * Registered Ds) PLUS
58k (number I think Trump wins Indys by).

Florida Man, we need your prediction also. We also thank you for all the work you have done in Miami.


Election Day

As far I as know, JoeIsDone should work on Election Day just as it is working today. ByeComey, any reason to think otherwise?

If it works as I think it should, we can continue to follow voting in Florida. We can see when Rs pass Ds in voting. We should come up with an estimate for Miami/Sarasota that we mentally add to the Dem lead on Election Day morning.

Ravi, do you want to volunteer to come up with that number?

On Election Day, we can see where D and R turnout is heading. If Rs exceed 81.2% or Ds falling short of our estimated turnout for them, Trump in good shape. If R turnout falls from 81.2%, obviously not good.

We can know how Florida is looking when the polls close with JoeIsDone before the entire country.

People still in line when voting ends, can generally still vote, so JoeIsDone could show vote updates continuing.

Any other thoughts for Election Eve and Election Day?

[SpeedyInTexas]

94,674 D lead officially below their 2016 lead.

Hooray for our side!

[rlbedfor]

Maybe we can get down to +60K D for all votes today. When does early vote stop? I think it depends on the county, but maybe Monday?

[SpeedyInTexas]

Most counties end early voting Sunday.

Just a handful of counties vote on Monday.