Posted on 10/30/2020 12:06:10 PM PDT by Qiviut
Going into the final weekend before the election, the polling trends are all going one direction (with a few outliers) and the data trends are all going the other. Which is correct?
We have seen in recent days some truly remarkable (Incredible? Ridiculous?) polls. With a “shades of Andrew Gillum is up by 11 the week before the election” Wisconsin poll, having Joe Biden up by 17 (!!), it’s clear that pollsters are either saucing the polls or on the sauce. (In 2016 Wisconsin was the subject of the absolute worst polling, with the average error being six points). Many of the national polls have Joe Biden winning by five. The question at this point has to be, where do these votes come from?
In North Carolina, for example, Democrats—despite employing the pandemic panic on their voters to vote by mail—are actually trailing their 2016 pace when Donald Trump carried the state by three points. Florida looks ready to stick the fork into. Based on their torrid voting the last week, Sunshine State Republicans look poised to actually lead by election day, while in 2016 they trailed by 96,000 votes. Pennsylvania “looks” good for Democrats until you realize that half of them have already voted, but two-thirds of the electorate has not. In other words, there are a lot of Republican votes waiting for Election Day. Even in Nevada, the turnout from the rural areas is 40,000 ahead of 2016, and when adjusted for population, the D lead is far slimmer than in 2016 when Hillary Clinton won by just 26,000 votes.
All of these numbers, of course, presume one thing: Democrats will be voting for Joe Biden and other Democrats. But does anyone outside of CNBC or the DNC really think that more Republicans will vote for Biden than Democrats will vote for Donald Trump?
We continue to see serious weakness in the African-American vote, down almost 4% now in North Carolina (which pretty much seals that state for Trump). But many polls now are consistently pointing to very high black approval of Trump and there are warning signs (such as the New York Times story and Richard Baris’s polling I mentioned in the last “Eye on Politics” column) that suggest Philadelphia blacks are backing Trump at levels that would be deadly for a Biden victory there.
What is clear is that across the board, whether it is actual Democrat/Republican ballot returns or TargetSmart modeling or county analysis, Republicans are surging. In Colorado, after finding themselves down 30 points at the outset of early voting, by yesterday they were only down 6.7 points. It’s highly doubtful that Republicans, or Trump, will win Colorado but the state is right in line with the trend nationally.
There are, however, a couple of key indicators that virtually every pollster (even the friendlies) has been missing. First, in Florida and North Carolina numbers, the share of the vote by whites is up significantly. Now, if these were suburban Karens, Trump might be worried, but they aren’t. They are middle-aged to older white males. Second, non-college whites of both sexes are up big—anywhere from 3% to 10%). This is Trump’s home run group. Likewise, as mentioned across the board the black vote is down for Biden. In Colorado, for example, the black vote is -1.1% from 2016. If 15% of those voters vote for Trump, the real decline is nearly 2%.
Finally, there is that continued erosion of the black vote, moving steadily toward Trump. It didn’t hurt that rapper Lil Wayne met with Trump and endorsed Trump’s “Platinum Plan” for the black community. Wayne joins Kanye, 50 Cent, and Ice Cube as powerful black cultural influencers who either endorsed Trump or supported his policies. The Four Rap-eteers basically gave the black community, especially the young black community, permission to vote for Trump. That carries far more weight than an endorsement by an aging, plastic-laden Cher or an embarrassing concert by a washed-up Jon Bon Jovi (my band played bars where we had a bigger audience).
As this plays out, Trump is in Bullhead City, Arizona, which has media access to all of southern Nevada, and where a few thousand extra votes from Laughlin wouldn’t hurt. But Joe Biden is in . . . Minnesota? I thought this was in the bag for the Democrats? The fact is that they now not only stand to lose the electoral votes there but also Tina Smith’s senate seat and a House seat or two.
In short, the non-polling metrics are all moving in the same direction. They do not point to a Joe Biden victory.
Larry Schweikart is the co-author with Michael Allen of the New York Times #1 bestseller A Patriot’s History of the United States, author of Reagan: The American President, and founder of the Wild World of History, a history curriculum website that features full US and World History Curriculum for grades 9-12 including teacher guides, student workbooks, tests/answer keys, maps/charts/graphs, and video lessons accompanying every unit (www.wildworldofhistory.com).
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I felt sure in 2016 that then-candidate Trump had a very good chance of winning. I have the same feeling today, only stronger. While the Dems spent the last 3+ years trying to get rid of the President, he spent the last 3+ years getting things done for the American people. I truly believe they’ve taken note, particularly in the black and Hispanic communities.
When the President wins re-election on Tuesday, watch how quickly the Left turns on minorities who voted Republican.
‘We’ve got to stop the bleeding’: Democrats sound alarm in Miami
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/29/miami-voter-turnout-democrats-433643
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WibM5490ivU&feature=emb_logo
Larry is up to something unique -- and he's got a merry band of FReeper and patriot elves helping him behind the scenes gather statistics.
What he's about is non-polling hard data: facts from many different places that give you vital clues as to how the Election is going to finish.
Larry's biggest treasure trove of data is reports from the States and counties on how many Dems, GOP, and Independents have actually voted.
Now not every state publishes those numbers, but Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina do — and Larry's been digging into that data.
And the article Larry wrote here (subject of this thread) is a nice summation of what he's been talking about for weeks on his Twitter.
Larry does no polling. I think his favorite pollster is Roger Baris of the People's Pundit -- and these guys dig what each other is doing.
Larry's approach is to put his historian hat on: he gleans what's happened (or about to happen) from tidbits of information that anybody can find, but few actually study or analyze with a fine tooth comb.
For months now, Larry's been telling us how the "Yut" vote (Youths 18 to 24) was going to be lower because a lot of college students are studying at home so the peer pressure is gone to go vote like there normally should be when everybody is on-campus, de-masked, and pub-crawling.
And the data Larry's been collecting indicates his hunch about the lower Yut vote looks correct -- and will likely favor President Trump.
So this is great stuff -- and there are very hopeful signs he's uncovering.
LS is certainly gathering and distributing information others
understand and find helpful. Dr. Steve (Turley) has commented and praised him more than once in his daily analysis. Case in point: the down ward slide in the number of votes to be found in the range of collage aged yuts. He has seen this coming to pass since the early days of this cycle in the Covid influenced life we are now living.
Here at FR, he has helped many a Freeper in keeping an even keel to stabilize and keep afloat the vision of victory.
This is great V K. Didn’t know Dr. Steve is talking about him. It maybe explains the fast growth in followers at the LS Twitter.
Every time I see a pathetic Biden “rally”, I think there can’t possibly be enough fraud to be had for him to steal this election. It really is unthinkable.
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