Posted on 10/30/2020 7:07:37 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
I think both candidates have a pretty solid 250 EV’s. Those middle 30ish votes is going to determine it.
“On top of that, why is there an infatuation with RCP? Anyone with basic math skills can do what they do. I see nothing magical about them whatsoever.”
Exactly! They mix some fairly average polls with a bunch of wild-assed crap polls making them worthless.
It’s like buying a steak dinner in 5 star restaurant and then having a bus-boy spit on it at the table. Any value it had is lost.
This might be a good time to admit publicly that I was wrong!
I predicted a year ago that Biden would NOT be the Democrats nominee, I could not have been more wrong.
I still don’t understand why the boys in the back room choose Biden to represent them. If it was to get a woman in the White House, why pick Harris as his running mate. Almost any woman would have been a better choice and might have actually helped the ticket, but Harris? Why, just why.
So once again, I was wrong.
Biden is driving to 200 not 270. The next 100 hours for him will be horrible.
He hates (and I do mean HATEs) “...the trend of journalists, analysts, and commentators rushing to the closest television camera or website to make their Nostradamus-like forecast of what is going to happen on Election Day.”
He then goes on to prove himself a liar.
but Harris? Why, just why.
Obama, she's part of the Obama/Jarret commie machine. Obama will be maestro. (having another term).
On top of that, why is there an infatuation with RCP? Anyone with basic math skills can do what they do. I see nothing magical about them whatsoever.
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Average of averages with different methods. A fools gold
Faux with their map up with various commentators playing what ifs.
Only going to get worse as they play on emotions.
Tuesday we shall see if common sense prevails or hysteria and media manipulation have emerged victorious.
I’m with you. I’ve never understood Biden and I barely understand Harris. Had they chose Tulsi Gabbard, everything about this election would be different.
Any poll that is off more than 2 points should be forced out of business for the next election.
And that means network polls too. That would put a stop to all the phony suppression polls.
The boys in the back room didn’t choose him?
China has bought and is buying our politicians and business leaders with our own money and the empty promis of 1.3 billion customers.
Any average is only as useful as the individual numbers being averaged. Garbage in means garbage out. So I have never thought the RCP thing made any sense.
Nate Silver's 538 site is a little less impossible with a current base of Biden at 89% with 346 EVs. However the chart there on the 538 site allows one to manipulate swing state wins for either candidate and then the site computes what else would change from the selection. This morning, having read the above, I punched in FL alone to see and Biden drops to 70% and 285EVs. Add NC and poor Joe still has a 58% wining chance but(?) only 269EVs, tied with Donald!
So with the above, on the 538 site, if I click just one of the mentioned 'available' states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania or Minnesota, Trump wins 270+EVs as all of the expected 'R' states turn automatically red! With Michigan clicked alone, he beats 2016 with 309 EVs! Here is praying!
The reason is the money pulling the strings. To put it a little crudely, oligarchs gonna oligarchs.
The part that RCP bungles is uncertainty. If they are to treat all these disparate polls as valid data, then that means that the actual range of uncertainty is GREATER THAN the span between the lowest and highest individual polls in that calculation.
That makes it garbage. Any monkey could say that the results will fall somewhere within a dozen point range. It adds no value to anyone’s life.
On average.
I am predicting ~320 EV for Trump this time around.
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