I also think a good number of the blacks that say they're voting for Trump are probably disillusioned with the democrats, and simply won't vote. Each person that does that equates in theory to a half vote for Trump.
Just this little but of measurable support from blacks, Latinos and union workers that traditionally support democrats will put POTUS over the top.
“I can’t see how Trump gets that many black votes. He got 8% in 2016, and even a small increase to 10% is massive.”
15% may be doable if all the stars and planets line up just right, but 10% infinitely more sensible than the 30%+ crap. If the ridiculous number was actually true, then why do even most “friendy” polls only show a tiny (if at all) Trump lead in states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, etc. which have a significant black voting bloc in major areas? I guess he must be losing quite a bit from 2016 in some other group then (gullible, COVID-terrorized seniors perhaps).
Not only that, if 33% of blacks were really voting for Trump it would imply at least a 50% figure for black males and possibly closer to 60% because he’ll still get less than 10% from black females, without a doubt. Even in the most ludicrous make-believe world, 50%+ of black males are not voting Republican.
Nobody remembers this, but Trump got 15 percent of the black male vote in 2016, according to exit polls. That is huge. It was offset by the barely 3 percent of the black female vote.
Trump has significantly built up that existing 15 percent of black male support in the last four years; signs point to it having doubled. If black female support has also doubled, to 6 percent, we’re looking at overall black support in the high teens, low 20s. Which would give Trump his margin of victory almost everywhere.