I wish I had the optimism of you two. I am not an expert but I look at the numbers. I see Democrats underperforming relative to the Republicans but I also see a large group of unaffiliated voters who are probably more fickle. I have been looking at the crosstabs of some of the polls to look at how independents are leaning. If all the unsure independents are given to Trump (i.e. are “shy” Trump voters), the best results would be something like a 50/50 split. That would make the election a toss-up in NC. I still see election in NC favoring Trump, but I think the margin will be less than 2016. I hope I am presently surprised.
“I have been looking at the crosstabs of some of the polls”
Identified the problem.
I concentrate on race, class, gender. Put aside party registration. Whites are on pace to be in the low 70s of the electorate. Blacks, 20% or less. We do NOT lose NC if those numbers hold (they will). WWC voters favor Trump. They are Trump’s base. They are showing up in huge #s. We will not lose NC.
Trump is delivering the kill-shot tonight in Fayetteville on behalf of Thom Tillis. Also, we need to win NC gov. b/c redistricting could affect 3 or 4 house seats (at least). Miss Lindsey will be lifted tonight, also, as Trump’s rally will be broadcast in a portion of SC.