“I have been looking at the crosstabs of some of the polls”
Identified the problem.
I looked at the crosstabs of favorable polls including Rasmussen, SurveyUSA, etc. Trafalgar does not provide detailed crosstabs. While I believe there is a bias in the polls as a group, those that are favorable to Trump are likely not that far off. The only parameter I was interested in was how independents were leaning so such things as breakdowns between D/R/I were not relevant. I hope you are right.