Posted on 10/29/2020 6:11:36 AM PDT by bort
Republicans cut more than one percentage point off of the Democrats' early voting lead in NC yesterday. The Democrat EV lead was cut to roughly 285K, as Republicans net-gained just under 16K votes yesterday.
Dem--1,493,832--(38.62%)--(+70K votes)
Rep--1,208,633--(30.92%)--(+85.5K votes)
Una--1,146,929--(29.65%)--(+78K votes)
The black share of the early vote electorate dropped for the 4th straight day, from 20.06% to 19.78%. Interestingly, "unaffiliated" voters out-voted Democrats yesterday.
As I have noted many times, in 2016, Democrats LOST NC despite having a 310K early vote lead going into election day. Republicans are on pace to cut the Dem lead down to around 230K--ish. Democrats need the black share of the overall electorate to by 22.5%. The black share is on pace to be 20% or less (the black percentage will be about 1 point higher than board of elections stats state, as many voters in NC do not list their race).
Keep in mind that Democrats spent a ton of money trying to push their base to vote early by mail. Despite this huge early vote effort, Republicans have caught up in in-person voting. Republican voters come out strong on election day.
Translation: Trump is coming in for the kill-shot today in Fayetteville, NC. We are still in good shape.
I don’t think it is as easy as fear makes it out to be.
You can change the date on meter mail...but that doesn’t go over well with the post office. (Past experience)
Like I said. The exposure light will be on these late ballots. They are to be the most scruntinized pieces of mail in history.
Did you see yesterday...
Cooper gave a press conference and blamed white people in rural areas for a spike in new COVID cases? He basically blamed it on Trump rallies in NC. When a reporter asked him for details and proof of his allegations, he fumbled around a little bit and then turned to his Health Secretary, normally a Cooper sycophant. She refused to answer because she knew he was outright lying. Cooper is such a POS.
The sun is actually out right now!
Trees were sideways an hour ago. The yard is now covered in leaves and small limbs.
Doesn’t metered mail have to go out on the day it’s metered? If it doesn’t, the envelope has to be re-metered for the correct day, even if there is $00.0 metered postage (the correct postage shows on the original meter mark). That would surely raise some red flags.
Been years since I dealt with that stuff...may’ve changed.
You are correct. The post office doesn’t receive metered mail for any other day but today.
Have you modeled how much of the electorate will remain on Election day in North Carolina?
We are at 3.8 Million early votes now.
The total electorate was 4.7 Million in 2016. It was 4.4 million in 2012.
Let’s say that we push 5 million this year with the population increases. We then would need to subtract the total early vote from that number to see how many election day votes are left.
RE- We then would need to subtract the total early vote from that number to see how many election day votes are left.
1st he’s been challenged. He refuses to answer questions from 1110 WBT
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.