I agree. With Biden leading by 17 in WI he should be up.by 7-8 points in the Lone Star state!
Everybody’s got their own echo chamber.
If a state is supposed to move 10 points from 2016, there has to be some enormous population change. People don’t change their minds. The Trump haters and their echo chamber think lots of Republicans and Independents have seen the light and hate Trump now. And vice versa, we think Democrats are going to wholesale decide the riots are their own fault and will vote Trump.
Minds don’t change that easily. Usually not at all.
The Real American Politics guy (@RealAPolitics) guy is a very frustrated Wisconsinite. He watches county by county the EV pouring in (caveat: inferred voters through TargetSmart). He’s seeing Trump doing very well in rurals (like 2016) but also over-performing in the eastern 3 “WOW” counties where he under-performed in 2016. If he gets more vote in the “WOW” counties, he won’t need as much rural vote to win again.
This analyst is so bullish about winning WI based on what he’s seeing, and is extremely mad about the Biden poll+17 poll that came out. He thinks pollsters are making up numbers now or that they just sampled Madison voters. It’s ludicrous.
Check out his youtube videos. They’re quite short but informative about WI and other swing states.