Florida Early Vote update, 10/28/2020

ElectionCZAR ^ | 10/28/2020 | self

[SpeedyInTexas]

Florida Update:

VBM Ballots - DEMs lead by 620,908

In-Person Early Voting - REPs lead by 374,996

Combined Early Voting - DEMs lead by 245,912

[Rumierules]

I’m showing Duval Rs doing a bit better than Orange or Seminole.

But that is a bit like Biden saying he wasn’t dead last in his law school class.

[Coop]

About a 41K IPEV advantage so far today

[rlbedfor]

It will be a cat2 when it hits LS but weakened greatly when it moves across MS. FL will get storm surge but they will be surfing the surge and voting.

[deport]

Only the closures hold down the vote.

**********

Power outages may well be a cause in some
areas thus impacting voting machines.

[Florida1181]

I was just thinking about this. The forecast has whats left of it with near hurricane force winds near Atlanta. That will cause power outages in Georgia. Curious how that impacts things up that way.

[Roadrunner383]

Zeta is moving very fast and the movement will speed up after landfall. It will be up into the N.Ga mountains tomorrow (Thur.) morning, well away from the Fla panhandle. Weather should fine by the time the polls open Thurs. and really nice weather predicted through Sat.

[Ravi]

Denominator in action. Exhibit A (Sumter):

DEMs: 18,337 out of 24,928 RV voted (73.6% DEM turnout)
REPs: 44,286 out of 59,782 RV voted (74.0% REP turnout)

[janetjanet998]

I lost my reference points at the start of the day but last update was good for Rep

last update: 4:52 eastern
+1369 EV
Dems lost 98 mail ins

Net gain +1467 good guys

DEMS up 206986 combined

[Ravi]

Thanks for doing this!

[Owen]

Sub 200K end of day conceivable

[KC_Conspirator]

What is the daily combined gain since yesterday?

[Ravi]

UMich just updated. Overall turnout below.

55.5% DEM turnout
53.0% REP turnout

Could match them in overall turnout going into election day. Now that would be crazy b/c we still have more voters to vote on election day.

[Coop]

It will be a cat2 when it hits LS

Fortunately LS is as tough as nails

[Rumierules]

If we catch them on overall turnout, I think we’d have 58k fewer registered voters than Ds who could vote.

[cowboyusa]

421 Ev lead now!!

[SpeedyInTexas]

From Tom Bevan at RCP - commenting on Cook.

I like him. Pretty even handed. Not a lefty.

“So Texas, where Trump is currently leading by 2.6 points, is a now a toss up. But Arizona, where Biden is currently leading by 2.4 points, is lean Dem.”

[janetjanet998]

another good update for the good guys

5:15pm

Reps EV +1287
Dems mail in +44

net R +1287

total DEMS +205743

[Ravi]

True but I’m thinking more of the frequent voters and supervoters that are left. I believe we would still have that advantage going into election day. The DEMs can have the advantage on voters who register but never vote.

[janetjanet998]

What is the daily combined gain since yesterday?

---

I am not sure...I lost my starting reference points(had it written down)

but I think we needed 46,000ish to hit the the DEM +200k mark

so around +40K now I think

[Owen]

the very top of this thread shows start of day lead:

245,912