Posted on 10/25/2020 7:24:39 AM PDT by bort
As I will explain below in more detail, this is good news out of NC. Republicans won early voting yesterday, albeit by roughly 1,000 votes, cutting .5% from the Democrats' early voting lead. This is the 4th straight day that Republicans out-voted Democrats in early voting.
Dem: 49K early votes (1,255,960 total EV) (40.51%)
Rep: 50K early votes (929,324 total EV) (29.98%)
The black percentage of the EV electorate remained flat at 20.56%. Note: Yesterday was supposed to be a "Democrat day" in early voting. Democrats do much better on weekends, and there were a number of voter drives organized for black voters. That Republicans won the EV contest yesterday is encouraging.
Why is this all good news?
1) Going into election day 2016, Reps trailed Dems by 310K votes but won NC by 3.8 points. Reps ALWAYS turn out in much higher numbers on election day compared to Dems. The current Dem lead is roughly 327K, and we have 9 more days of EV.
2) The only number we really need to focus on is the black turnout. Obama won NC in 2008 by 1 point; blacks comprised 23% of the NC electorate. The Dems need NC black turnout at 22.5% or higher to win POTUS and the senate race. Blacks currently comprise 20.5% of the early vote electorate.
3) Unless the Democrats are holding back a secret reserve of energized black voters, the black share of the electorate will very likely end up being at or below 20%. We will know for sure tomorrow, after "souls to the polls." Unfortunately for Dems, black GOTV drives like "souls to the polls" have been neutered by China Virus.
4) The Democrats front-loaded their voting. Dem-leaning PACs and the state party spent millions of dollars encouraging NC Dems to vote by mail, and they did. The good news is that early votes by mail, where Democrats have a 3:1 advantage, are starting to slow down to a trickle, which means the balance of early votes will be "in person," where Reps are crushing it.
5) Most telling, as to "first time" voters (either totally new voters or voters who moved into NC after the 2016 election), Republicans have a slight LEAD. This is likely because of Trump's ground game and the college student shortfall that Larry Schweikart predicted.
6) Question: If Democrats are so scared of the China Virus that they requested massive numbers of mail-in ballots, what do you think the turnout will be among Democrats who did not request a mail ballot? Especially after their candidate just told them during the debate that hundreds of thousands of people are going to die from China Virus? Expect a China Virus drop-off of at least 3 to 5% in in-person voting by Democrats when it is all said and done.
Ping
This assumes the percentage of the Black vote Trump gets remains the same as in 2016. Its going to increase....almost certainly substantially increase.
I will also go on the record as saying the Hispanic population of NC is probably considerably higher than 2008. But a 2% drop of the black vote will help.
My hope is that some democrats will just stay home due to the Biden scandal and the debate performances.
Apparently, African Americans are dying at three times the rate of Whites from coronavirus, so I don't rely expect black in person votes to gather any momentum going to election day.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/20/black-americans-death-rate-covid-19-coronavirus
“Unfortunately for Dems, black GOTV drives like “souls to the polls” have been neutered by China Virus.”
Bane: “Victory has defeated you.”
Agreed. I have been screaming this for weeks. As part of my job, I interact with downscale black folks daily. The fear among black folks re: China Virus is palpable, especially older black women. And it isn’t getting any better with Biden and the Dems scaring the scat out of their base.
You and I hop in a car and go vote. Many blacks do the same thing, but a substantial portion of the black vote is “bussed” to the polls via voter drives, typically through churches. These voter drives have been neutered. That’s why in states with large rural black populations like NC, Ga, FL, and VA, I expect to see the black vote crater. It will also fall in places like Milwaukee, Detroit, Philly, etc.
“My hope is that some democrats will just stay home due to the Biden scandal and the debate performances.”
I hope they all do what my dad did. He’s a lifelong Democrat, and after the debate Thursday night he went out first thing Friday morning and voted for Trump. I was shocked, but it gave me hope this may be a landslide victory for Trump.
“Unless the Democrats are holding back a secret reserve of energized black voters, the black share of the electorate will very likely end up being at or below 20%.”
Democrats will make up for any deficit on election day and the days after as Democrat controlled board of elections in North Carolina urban areas “find” tens of thousands of ballots. Based on the recent chicanery with the NC State Board of Elections by the majority Democrats, cheating is certain.
In many ways, it’s just the letter “D” that energizes them.
I voted on Thursday. Wake county has a website where they list the current wait times for all early voting sites. In and out in <15 min.
This is somewhat off topic, but for a while I have been curious about that number they write on the top of the ballot before they hand it to you. A volunteer pollworker confirmed my suspicion that this is a number traceable to the individual voter. They put it there to supposedly rectify cases of ballot fraud, but I find it surprising and alarming, especially in this age of threats and reprisals.
It’s increased considerably in % terms not so much in numerical terms.
A friend and I went to a casino in Vegas to have lunch and then gamble a little. Because of a bunch of tables being shut down there was a line. In front of us was a black couple, maybe late 50’s. They both had masks and gloves and then every couple of minutes the man would put this spray bottle he was carrying in front of both their faces and spray spray spray the air. I’ve never seen anything like it.
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That’s funny. So I’m a lawyer that handles a lot of criminal cases and have a lot of black clients. Since March, judges have been letting people out of jail left and right b/c of China Virus, even defendants who pre-virus would have never been let out. But to let somebody out, the judge has to be convinced that the defendant will be living with a suitable relative. OMG, grandma, aunt, sister-—nobody will take them because they fear the defendant has the virus by being in jail. Never had this issue before. Also, the white Karens I live around are just as bad. I go running at the local park and young couples will be wearing masks while they walk around in the fresh air.
Good stuff. Our VBM return rate is now only 2.3% behind theirs.
“They both had masks and gloves and then every couple of minutes the man would put this spray bottle he was carrying in front of both their faces and spray spray spray the air.”
If they are that paranoid I am surprised they even leave the house let alone head to Vegas.
Ping
“This assumes the percentage of the Black vote Trump gets remains the same as in 2016. Its going to increase....almost certainly substantially increase.”
I agree. I also think this is one reason that the polls are off. Their methodology does not take into account the increase of support for President Trump in the Black and Latino communities.
Good for you dad. My wife’s two sisters are voting for the first time in their lives and they are voting for President Trump.
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