Crazy Polls: Don't look now but IBD/TIPP has Biden support up post-debate (Dem +5 sample)

I don’t trust the polls OR the data analysis of early voting. The polls have lots of issues and have for years. Early voting? Depends on how people view the virus. Shockingly, even 20%+ of Republicans believe they will die if they catch it when the real number is around 0.02%!

Vote. Get other like minded people out to vote. Pray. Polls and early trends are not reliable. We just don’t know!

I don’t see any justification whatsoever for Democrats to have a plus five in voter turnout.

"I don't know what planet you live on but I don't see how Biden support goes up after that last debate."

Of course it is lies, damnable lies, then statistical manipulation to get the desired result. Then again one strong debate performance honestly is not going to change the mind of many voters. Also consider that one fourth to one third of the votes have already been cast.

38% Democrat in this poll. But, Gallup had only 27% of the nation identify as Democrat in September.

The proof is right there and backs what I said in my earlier post!

The polls are in fact useless.....all of them.

Even Rasmussen who also has a daily tracking poll(reported weekly on Wed) went from Trump up 1 to Biden up 4 to Biden up 12 to Biden up 4 to Biden up 3 and all this in the space of about 4 weeks.

Pollsters seem unable to get the demographic mix between R & D’s right and who knows what they are using for a turnout model.

The only thing I think is true is that Trump is ascending while Obama is descending.

This isn’t a post-debate poll. I’ll wait until next week to see what they say. I’ve also had some problems with IBD/TIPP’s geographic samples, giving Trump only a few point lead with Southern voters, among other things. The USC Dornsife tracking poll, which was also spot-on in 2016, introduced the 2020 edition of their poll by saying, “we were right for the wrong reasons” and promptly announced that they were decreasing their sample of rural voters this year. Of course, they now show Biden with a big lead. Sometimes I think these pollsters would rather hang with the crowd than be correct.

Recent Gallup survey of overall voter self identification showing Republicans with a 1% advantage nationally.

Media’s Uphill Battle to Create a Self-Fulfilling Election Prophecy…

Posted on October 21, 2020 by sundance

Many people have requested polling deconstruction similar to CTH accurate analysis in 2016. Let us be clear, there really is no value in doing that in 2020.

The media effort in 2020 is indeed very similar to 2016 in that current narratives are a psychological effort to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

BASELINE 101: Everyone naturally wants to be on the winning team.

The media effort, and that means all media including social media and big tech, is to push down Trump support and elevate the appearance of Biden support. I really wish people would deeply consider this…

…If ABC (G. Stephanopoulos), CBS (L. Stahl), NBC (S. Guthrie/L. Holt), CNN (writ large), and FOX (C. Wallace/M. Kelly) are willing to stage audience plants (demonstrably done) during town-hall and broadcast television events,… then what exactly do you think those same media outlets are doing with their election polling?

Think about it.

I do not mean casually think about it; I mean really think about it.

Your intellectually honest answer is the answer you need unto itself.

Everything you are witnessing right now is about psychological control to create the false illusion of reality within your own mind. Essentially, professional media gaslighting with an agenda and purpose. This is not a conspiracy theory, those who are coordinating the effort have admitted exactly what they are doing:

♦ Google executives are on camera, outlining what their organization is doing. HERE and HERE and HERE. Google has admitted to using algorithms and their control over the internet search engine to influence the election. Again, stop and think about that.

♦ General Stanley McCrystal is working with a SuperPAC to use psychological warfare against the American electorate. Even the Washington Post admitted:

[…] The group, Defeat Disinfo, will use artificial intelligence and network analysis to map discussion of the president’s claims on social media. It will seek to intervene by identifying the most popular counter-narratives and boosting them through a network of more than 3.4 million influencers across the country — in some cases paying users with large followings to take sides against the president. (source)

♦ The national U.S. media has been caught numerous times constructing a false reality, lying about events and attempting to manipulate the election. As you read this you have the concrete example of all national media hiding the explosive issues around Hunter and Joe Biden. Again, these are not conspiracy theories, these are demonstrable facts.

So what do you think all of these aligned interests are trying to do with the media polling examples they push and promote so heavily? Answer: they are trying to create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

However, the actual facts on the ground… the stuff you can see around you, with your own eyes and ears,… is entirely different from the false reality they are attempting to create in the internet and false reality of television.

Take the example of Kamala Harris in Asheville, North Carolina today:

This is Asheville, North Carolina, a regional pocket of the most far-left of the furthest left moonbats in the entire South. And yet despite being in that left-wing enclave, Harris can only draw a crowd of around a dozen supporters.

See the disconnect?

Kamala Harris leaving the events to a stream of cheers and boos. @asheville pic.twitter.com/rXaP1mHSC2
— David Thompson (@daveth89) October 21, 2020

A smattering of support and opposition in the town that should be the most pronounced support group for the efforts of the Moonbat coalition. The reality is entirely disconnected from the false media narrative…. brutally and transparently so.

This bizarre dynamic is why it was important to CTH readers for me to write about the media polling immediately after winning the 2016 election. At 5:00am on November 9th, 2016, I had to put this in writing because I realized the opposition would weaponize this fake polling with increased severity in 2020.

Here is exactly what I wrote then:

2016: Before we begin the arduous process of holding our political representatives accountable for the mandate we require, there is a very important detail which must be forever etched in the psyche of our republic to ensure it is never forgotten.

THE MEDIA DIDN’T GET IT WRONG – The pollsters did not work from the wrong data set; the media pollsters, consultants and professional political class did not work from the wrong assumptions, or use the incorrect baselines….. THEY LIED.

The professional media polling agents knew exactly what the truth was.

They lied and manipulated their data in a concerted effort to intentionally falsify reality. There should be no doubt, EVER, in the mind of any political observer as to what took place within the expressed and broadcasted polling which fueled over two years of broadcast news. The media intentionally lied.

They knew the truth. The same tools available to us, and to those who were ridiculed for truth-telling, were available to them and many more. They did not get it wrong. They chose to lie to you the American electorate. So let’s name the liars so their names can forever be dispatched from the land where credibility is of value:

Fox News, pollster Daron Shaw, Shaw Research and associates and the Wall Street Journal. Rupert Murdoch.
NBC News, pollster Mark Murray, Hart Research and Associates.
Monmouth University, pollster Patrick Murray.
CBS News and New York Times writ large.
ABC News and The Washington Post.
CNN News Network and ORC Polling.
Reuters Polling Operations.

These individuals along with every single corporate national media polling outlet, which in turn contributed to -and skewed- the larger aggregate of the Real Clear Politics average of polls, were complicit in their intent to deceive the American electorate in an ideological scheme to manipulate the psyche of the American voter.

There is not a single shred of credibility that should remain with any of the above mentioned polling entities.

They did not make mistakes; they did not operate from the wrong assumptions. These organizations, as part of the larger corporate objectives from those who fund their endeavors, lied. Allowing them to say they made a mistake is only dooming ourselves to the continued cycle of battered electorate syndrome.

These entities are our abusers. They have been gaslighting the American electorate for years, and have been able to remain unchecked because no-one has ever called them to task before.

Throughout the last two years we have identified and exposed this corrupt endeavor while being ridiculed and marginalized at each undertaking. There should be no quarter provided and no amount of forgiveness ever offered.

The entire construct of their operational business model is corrupt from top to bottom. This moment in history should forever separate their influence from our national political discussion. PERIOD.

Lies.

All of it.

Intentionally so.

Break the cycle.

[2016 LINK]

“over samples Democrats by 5”

...... while data shows registrations move to Republicans favor.

That’s because we only believe the polls that are favorable to us

“I thought IBD/TIPP was most accurate in 2016??”

Just because they were accurate in 2016 does not mean they are accurate in 2020. Also, give that poll a few more days to capture the trend away from Biden.

I often see how people point out here and other places that a poll over sampled the D’s

but the fact is that there are more registered D’S then R’S in the USA so a random sample should have more D’s then R’s right?

.." many EVs are now regretting their hasty vote"

Surely there are some, but logic says few early voters were wavering, or they wouldn't have voted.

“Everyone here was touting them a couple of days ago when they had the lead down to less than 3 points.”

There will still be adjustments in the polls and the trend is to Trump. When we do see the polls adjust to Trump, we will know that polls are accurate.

Yes but I believe for the last presidential election the electorate was D+3.

Bingo —-any poll that is not even or plus 1 is wrong

DjT’s rally surveys show huge numbers attending are Ds, or have never voted.

Bodes well.

"Everyone here was touting them a couple of days ago when they had the lead down to less than 3 points."

In these Orwellian times a polling company can go from "highly reliable" to "bogus garbage" (or vice-versa) quite rapidly, depending on whether they tell us what we want to hear. By this time next week IBD/TIPP might be back in our good graces, or might be persona non grata forever.

Yes it’s a rolling 7 day average . I think trump had some bad nights predebate