Note: This was February, before Sleepy Joe was the candidate ...
@NateSilver538
· 21h
A bit less contrived: some "unlikely voters" actually do turn out to vote. So if you screen out a bunch of Republican unlikely voters, but you don't screen out as many of the Dem unlikely voters because they've already voted, you could underestimate the GOP vote share.
Got to keep that narrative going.
Can’t cheat if they report the truth that Trump is ahead across the board.
Records have shown that there are a lot of people attending Trump rallies that are not even republicans, and many that haven’t voted in years. That’s going to mean a lot of votes for Trump.
When Barbra Streisand and Whoopi Goldberg and Rosie ODonnell said they would leave the USA if Donald Trump won the Presidency it really motivated people to vote for Trump. A lot of people that I know said that was the motivation that they needed to vote for Trump.
I spoke with a 65 year old acquaintance earlier today who told me that she’d never voted before in her life. However, she recently registered and yesterday personally delivered her ballot to the Commissioner of Elections. She voted for Trump.
Voters are motivated by two things:
1. party loyalty
2. personal connection to a candidate, whether having voted before or not
Year to year, regular voter numbers don’t much change. In ‘08, however, Obama increased the yute and black vote and won.
In ‘16, Clinton garnered only the usuals, while Trump drew out prior non-voters who were attracted to his message, and he attracted enough of those to outvote the small fraction of Republican loyalists who abandoned him. (He would have lost had he depended on traditional Republican voters.)
Same in ‘20: Biden has no personal connection or draw. He’s getting the same old, so if Trump by any measure increases the 2nd category, he wins.
He will.
I assume you don't mean the exciting dynamism and future oriented heroic leadership of the charismatic Biden will motivate them to vote./S
I think he will put more voters to sleep than Mondale, Dukakis and McGovern combined. Sominex and ZQuill combined.