Posted on 10/23/2020 6:29:46 AM PDT by bort
Day 8 of early voting brought more good news for Republicans in NC. Republicans cut 2 percentage points off of the Democrats' early voting lead, and for the second day in a row Rs out-voted Ds in early voting (Rs +6,687).
Republicans cast--93,163 early votes yesterday
Democrats cast---86,476 early votes yesterday
The Democrat early voting lead dropped to app. 340K
In 2016, Dems won early voting by 310K and LOST NC by 3.8 points. (continued)
Ping
Keep up the fine work and get that Dem advantage below 300K! Still holding out hope for a 7-8 point POTUS victory in the Tarheel State.
Why this is SO huge:
The early vote in NC will be so much larger than in 2016, and the Election-Day vote according to all surveys will be enormously Republican; almost all growth in early voting is SUPPOSED to be Democrat. This suggests that Democrats are afraid or disinterested in voting. I’ve seen the same pattern in every state I could analyze so far (FL, GA, NC, OH, NV).
The only question is whether Democrats are lying about their intent to vote, or whether both parties are lying about WHEN they’ll vote (the Republicans overstating their desire to vote on Election Day as much as Democrats overstating their desire to vote early). The latter seems unlikely but is possible; early voting patterns suggested a Romney win, according to what we knew to look for THEN.
IOW: Be hopeful, but don’t get cocky, kid.
That’s amazing! Thank you!!!
Plugging my comic to that effect: https://joeisdone.github.io/comic.html
I hope all the libs continue to hide in their basements from Covid!
What it means is the polls run by the Drive-bys were, and still are, complete bullshit.
They lied.
Well, can you blame them? Voter fraud delivered NC, FL, PA, MI and WI to Pres. Hillary Clinton.
Exit polls in GA say the voters there were 30% black in 2016. Seems like a disaster... for Biden, that is.
We need to get this much lower than a 310k dem margin by election day. In 2016, that 310k margin was after 1.2 million total early voters— 2.7 million have already been cast. If we assume something like 3.5 million will early vote then we need to get the margin down to 310k *1.2/3.5= 106k.
Good catch!
What are the totals of dem lead as of today?
Not when all the DEMs are pretty much either VBM voting or early voting. They will have no gas left in the tank - that’s been about the only consistent thing with the surveys on when DEMs plan to vote.
I am really pleasantly surprised to see the GOP winning same-day registrations! I just wish Trump would quit visiting NC. Not to mention OH! Makes me wonder if they are seeing worrisome trends. NC can be explained due to Tillis’ tight Senate race. OH, not so much. Unless they’re trying to run up the score for the popular vote?
Good point
OH is right between PA and MI. Going to a Trump rally is an all day event anyway, what’s a couple hours of driving.
I have heard that argument. Could be. But why not rally in MI (or PA) where POTUS could promote John James or other down ballot candidates? Trump pulled ad $$$ from OH. These rallies could be to slow or stop Biden gains from all his advertising. I really don’t know.
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