Here are the RETURNED Florida VBM numbers for 2020 (these are returned ballots but not yet counted).
50.4% of VBM ballots have been returned at this point.
49.3% of REP ballots have been returned and 54.3% of DEM ballots have been returned.
That data indicates there are a lot of VBM ballots out for the GOP
54.3% of D VBM ballots returned.
They’ve been adding around 3% per day.
Another 10 days of that and they’d hit 84%.
An 84% D turnout would be huge.
Its hard to believe they can keep up the pace but we shall see.
Republican vote-by-mail return rate fell five percent behind almost immediately, and has been holding steady since then; Seems a reasonably presumption the return rate will ultimately be very similar.
Dems led yesterday in early voting; Republicans now lead? That’s awesome. The BIG factor is that Democrats REPORT to pollsters that they’re NOT going to show up on Election Day. Republicans should lead in same-day voting by 3-1, according to pollsters. So are Democrats procrastinating, or just letting the election slide away?
“50.4% of VBM ballots have been returned at this point.
49.3% of REP ballots have been returned and 54.3% of DEM ballots have been returned.”
That is good news. Nate Silver has said that for the Dems to overcome the election day GOP turnout, the VBM numbers prior to election day must favor the dems by a 70/30 split. If 50% of the VBM ballots have been returned, it is practically impossible for them to hit the 70/30 split with 25% of the overall VBM already in the GOP column. They’d need to run the remaining ballots to be mailed in at a 95/5 split.