“The very searing truth is that Donald Trump can still win this race, and every indication we have shows that this thing is going to come down to the wire,” ... “In the key battleground states where this election will be decided, we remain neck and neck with Donald Trump.” - Jen O’Malley-Dillon, campaign manager for HidenBiden, on Saturday, 10/17/20
If you are listening to Rush, you just heard #161 verbatim.
Trafalgar’s polls seem to back that up. Playing around with the election map and using Trafalgar’s numbers, it looks like it’s all going to come down to Michigan, where Trafalgar has Trump ahead by about half a point.
RCP has 216 to 125 in electoral votes, but that’s with some pretty ridiculous “tossups.” Trump is going to win Texas, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Arizona, and Ohio. I’ll bet Trump wins ME-2 and Biden wins NE-2. That gives Trump 244, so he needs 26 votes out of the remaining of: Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), North Carolina (15), Winsconsin (10), Minnesota (10), and Nevada (6). Biden’s probably slightly ahead in PA, WI, and NV, Trump is probably slightly ahead in NC. Minnesota and Michigan look like a dead heat. If Trump wins Michigan, he wins. If Trump wins Minnesota and loses Michigan, its 269-269.