Posted on 10/18/2020 6:09:44 AM PDT by bort
Here are the takeaways from this morning's early voting report from the NC State Board of Elections:
1) Republicans cut about 1.5 points from the Democrats lead in VBM/early in-person voting.
2) Votes cast: 665K/355K/408K (D/R/U registered voters)
3) Democrats have cast 310,000 more votes than Rs, but..
4) In 2016, Democrats cast--get this--exactly 310,000 more votes than Republicans in the entire early voting period, i.e., the exact same spread as today. In 2016, at the close of EV, Dems led Rs 1.3 million to 1 million VBM/EV cast.
5) Republicans have won 3 straight days of early voting so far, and are the odds-on favorite to win most (if not all) of the remaining in-person EV days, as Dem-heavy mail-in ballots are slowing down to a trickle.
6) Caveat: Black voters have turned out in the first 3 days of in-person EV in large numbers (especially Day One). The good news is that Rs still out-performed Ds on all three days, which means that white Democrats cannibalized their in-person votes by voting via mail. Black voters may be "front-loaded" in in-person EV through voter drives, but we will need 3 or 4 more days of data to confirm this.
7) Conclusion: Calm down about NC. We are in good shape. This state ALWAYS looks bad for Rs at the beginning. (continued)
So IBD/TIPP poll now has it a 5 point race. I do think IBD/TIPP is in the top tier of pollsters.
National GE:
Biden 50% (+5)
Trump 45%
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 1%
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317865405885632514
Trump doesn’t need to win popular vote. If he is within 3% of pop, he will likely win.
I won’t be surprised if IBD poll gets within 3 points by election day.
I think it VERY important that Trump win the popular vote, and by a decent margin (over 2m).
Nate Silver and Dave Wasserman still think Biden wins.
Election night may cause many heads to explode. May make 2016 election night seem Jolly by comparison.
Nate Silver said HELLARY would win also YET!!!!!!
There are democrats voting Trump you know LOTS OF THEM!!
Whatever works for them I guess
Signed, an unaffiliated NC voter.
This map looks so much like 2016 pre election.
https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1317836262225661960/photo/1
Nothing has changed. All the “toss up” states can be won by Trump. The Great Lake states are “leaning D”.
A better reflection of the state of the election, would be the current toss up states ==> lean R. MN/WI/MI/PA toss up states.
These guys are so blind.
So Friday afternoon-—and I was NOT in particular thinking about this stuff-—a powerful feeling came in my spirit that said “We’ve won. They are broken.”
This was reinforced by Baris’s polling in AZ (win); the TargetSmart early data in MI combined with both the Trafalgar poll showing Trump up one, but more important the James poll showing him up 2 (no way James wins and Trump loses); the slowdown of FL. Unlike some of you, I think the last two days are your yardstick from here on out and Ds can add maybe 70,000 more to finish well under 600,000 in VBM.
I think now NV is very close, and that Trump will take MN. I’m less certain about NH, only because I’ve heard less about it. I think he sweeps PA, WI, MI, and MN, adds NH and NV. ED will have a shocking shortfall of Ds from students and blacks giving Trump the pop vote.
Note: Trump in . . . NV today.
I mentioned this to Eric Trump who said he had the same feeling that Ds were broken two days before that.
The actual early voting trends show all of the “tossup” states are Trump states now.
Not polls, actual early voting.
Here is the video that walks you through it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf6yr_McIFs&feature=youtu.be
Nevada numbers: https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=9054
No sure why there aren’t Clark IPEV numbers.
Clark county started voting IPEV yesterday. Don’t know why their numbers aren’t posted yet.
Ralston did note the Rs won IPEV in Washoe Saturday, first day of IPEV, unlike 2016.
IPEV in Clark wasn’t that strong yesterday. 18k with 4 hours left to vote. In 2016, 39k voted that first day.
“More than 17,800 people cast their ballots on the first day of early voting in Clark County, according to initial figures released Saturday afternoon.
The number, which is as of 3 p.m. and was expected to grow as early voting centers closed at 7 p.m., is smaller than day one totals from previous elections. In 2018, more than 30,000 people cast ballots on the first day of early voting. The number was a little more than 39,000 in 2016.”
I think all registered voters in Nevada received a mail ballot. That “could” push Nevada turnout to high levels. Which candidate is that good for?
Las Vegas is not a leftist place like LA. They believe that it’s their American right to engage in extroverted debauchery and be left alone in peace. Unlike the introverted yuppies in other cities, the lockdowns worked against their mindset in a big way. Also very strongly pro-police, it is widely considered the best major city for a police officer to work in.
Remember what I posted earlier this morning? You can infer crossover voting by lower enthusiasm levels.
“They believe that it’s their American right to engage in extroverted debauchery and be left alone in peace”
Amen.
“Also very strongly pro-police, it is widely considered the best major city for a police officer to work in.”
It seems like so long ago, but remember one of the signature Clinton “accomplishments”? 100,000 new cops on the beat.
Today if a Democrat sponsors a bill to put 100,000 new cops on the street, Antifa/BLM will be marching in front of their home.
So Clark County website says 27k vote IPEV yesterday. Way down from 39k in 2016... but mail ballots screw up comparisons.
No breakdown by party.
https://elections.clarkcountynv.gov/electionresults/evturnout.aspx
I know there is no way of knowing. Just want everyone to remember that they can be crossing over and voting for our President!
Look at what I found (with credit to Speedy for the inspiration):
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=8686
This is combined in-person and mail-in voting. Thus far, we are seeing a makeup of 43% Dem and 40% Rep.
How does this compare to 2016?
Well... You have to scroll down to a very ugly website here to get the historical data. http://www.electproject.org/early_2016
But bottom line, in 2016, Nevada early voting was 42.1% D, 36.2% R, 21.7% I.
Want even more promising numbers? Here’s the results of Nevada’s first week of early voting *from 2016*: https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543 - if you combine the mail-in and IPEV, 43.7% D - 36.7% R, so we can expect the gap to narrow further if this follows historical trends.
I’d caution to wait for a few days of Clark County IPEV numbers before getting excited about these numbers. But it does look promising!
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