Mean trumps up about 5.
Eve of election polls had Hillary up from 2-7 points most in the 4ish range and one outlier, trafalgar had Trump up 2. That was the only poll that had him in the lead the week before the election.
If you go back to most polls that were out 3/4 weeks before the election Hillary was up 6-8.
Biden isn’t taking PA. It’s a joke He won PA by .61% in 16. I expect him to win by 3-5% this time.
I am telling you I have never seen anything like what I am seeing for Trump this year ever. Even 16 when I was sure he was winning here, I didn’t see what I am seeing on the ground here.
The only consistent open vocal support advocating Biden I come across are the never Trumpers... even the life long democrat activist have no enthusiasm for Biden or the old mattress.
I am doing the same casual polling I did on 16, and it’s not even a contest.
I tell a joke, but it’s 100% true..
When you leave the urban areas, and do an informal political sign poll, you find Biden is running a distant third, behind Trump and “Corn For Sale”.
I have never seen anything like this, yes the rural parts of the state are more conservative, so seeing more GOP signs there than D signs is typical, but I have never seen anything like this. It’s not 2-1 Trump or 3-1 Trump, or evening 10-1 Trump... it’s around 20-1 Trump... and it’s not the raw number disadvantage is the sheer number of Trump signs period...far far far more homes and businesses have signs than I can ever recall seeing.
The percentage of homes with signs is far far higher than any election I can recall.
I talk and BS with anyone and try to just gauge where they are.. folks I have no idea what their backgrounds are, or political affiliations.. and the story I keep hearing over and over particularly from folks who interact with large swaths of the public is that in the middle class (lower and middle) areas no one over the age of 30 supports Biden
And I believe it.. to call Biden a stillborn would not be an understatement.
Now he won’t get 100% crushed and the games they are playing with the mail in voting will be used to try to sow confusion and prolong the crazy to attempt to prevent an election night call for Trump but Biden won’t take a single state Trump won in 16 and I expect Trump will take most if not all states he lost by less than 5 last time and may pick off one or two he lost by 5-10 last time as well
There are concerns however, like the "COVID-factor," the astronomically high level of Trump-hate, and the obvious ongoing attempt to steal/slime the election.
It's going to be wild, but I too think (or hope) provenance is with us.
My neighborhood in Ft. Bend County, TX has a good many Trump signs, including mine. There are a few Biden signs, but I don’t remember any Trump signs in 2016 (I didn’t have one that year either). My neighbor, an elderly Hispanic lady has the same white Trump/Pence sign I have. I hope this is indicative of an enthusiasm advantage.