Posted on 10/10/2020 6:27:38 PM PDT by Coop
There are 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. As of today the House make-up consists of 232 Democrats, 197 Republicans, 1 traitor Libertarian (Amash), and 5 vacancies (Republicans: Graves, GA-14; Meadows, NC-11; Ratcliffe, TX-04; Hunter, CA-50; Democrat Lewis, GA-05). Let’s assume all the vacant seats remain with their respective parties, and Amash votes with the Democrats. That’s 234 Ds to 201 Rs. The GOP needs a net gain of 17 seats to retire Nancy Pelosi as speaker. All 435 seats are up for re-election every two years, on even years. But only a small percentage are considered competitive. This year Ballotpedia assesses that less than 10% of races are considered battlegrounds.
At the beginning of this year there were 31 Democrats sitting in House districts that Trump won. After witnessing the disgraceful impeachment debacle, NJ-02’s Rep. Jeff Van Drew quit his shameful party and joined the GOP. Trump won Jeff’s R+1 district by 5 points. So now we have 30 Dems in Trump districts, and only 3 Republicans in districts won by Clinton.
As you look at the chart below, keep in mind that there are other competitive races not on this list. One example is GOP Rep. Don Bacon in NE-02, who barely won in 2016 & 2018 in a slight Trump-leaning district. Tom Kean Jr. is trying to flip NJ-07, a district Hillary won by a point, but that McCain-disciple Romney won by over 6 points in 2012. I am hopeful that readers of this thread will chime in with information on other competitive Congressional races (info on fundraising, voter registration, endorsements, events, and… [sigh] okay, even polls). 😊
GOP advantages are the numbers shown below (30 Trump-district Dem seats to defend vs. 3 Clinton-district GOP seats), as well as having Trump on the top of the ticket (unlike 2018 when we lost most of these seats). The GOP disadvantage is most of these Democrats are incumbents and very well funded. There are two open seats (no incumbent) in the below tables: IA-02 and TX-23. GOP candidates running in swing states will benefit from Trump & RNC money & get-out-the-vote operations. Republicans running in states like NJ and NY will need more of their own campaign money & hopefully NRCC funding.
The Cook partisan voting index (PVI) shows how a district leans, right or left, based on previous elections. WI-03 is rated as “even” on the Cook scale, meaning it is as “down the middle” as a district can get. R+2 means a district is about two points more Republican than WI-03, and D+7 means a district is about 7 point more Democratic than WI-03. Cook ratings for PA-08 and PA-17 are marked with question marks due to redistricting (these districts didn’t exist in this form during the last POTUS election, and I was finding conflicting information).
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| AZ-01 | 4 pts | R+2 | Tiffany Shedd | |
| GA-06 | 1.5 pts | R+8 | Karen Handel | |
| IL-14 | < 4 pts | R+5 | Jim Oberweis | |
| IL-17 | 0.7 pts | D+3 | Esther J. King* | |
| IA-01 | 3.5 pts | D+1 | Ashley Hinson | |
| IA-02 (open) | 4 pts | D+1 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks* | |
| IA-03 | 3.5 pts | R+1 | Former Rep. David Young | |
| ME-02 | >10 pts | R+2 | Dale Crafts | |
| MI-08 | <7 pts | R+4 | Paul Junge | |
| MI-11 | >3 pts | R+4 | Eric Esshaki | |
| MN-02 | >1 pt | R+2 | Tyler Kistner* | |
| MN-07 | <31 pts | R+12 | LtGov Michelle Fischbach | |
| NV-03 | 1 pt | R+2 | ”Big Dan” Rodimer | |
| NH-01 | 1.6 pts | R+2 | Matt Mowers | |
| NJ-03 | >6 pts | R+2 | David Richter | |
| NJ-05 | 1 pt | R+3 | Frank Pallotta | |
| NJ-11 | <1 pt | R+3 | Rosemary Becchi | |
| NM-02 | ~10 pts | R+6 | Yvette Herrell | |
| NY-11 | <10 pts | R+3 | Nicole Malliotakis | |
| NY-19 | <7 pts | R+2 | Kyle Van De Water* | |
| NY-22 | <15 pts | R+6 | Former Rep. Claudia Tenney | |
| OK-05 | ~13 pts | R+10 | Stephanie Bice | |
| PA-08 | <10 pts | ??? | Jim Bognet | |
| PA-17 | 2.6 pts | ??? | Sean Parnell* | |
| SC-01 | 13 pts | R+10 | Nancy Mace | |
| UT-04 | <7 pts | R+13 | NFL player Burgess Owens | |
| VA-02 | 3.4 pts | R+3 | Former Rep. Scott Taylor* | |
| VA-07 | 6.5 pts | R+6 | Nick Freitas* | |
| WI-03 | 4.5 pts | Even | Derrick Van Orden* | |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| NY-24 | -3.6 pts | D+3 | Rep. John Katko | |
| PA-01 | -2 pts | D+2 | Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick | |
| TX-23 (open) | -3.4 pts | R+1 | Tony Gonzales* | |
Did you notice all the vibrant female Republican candidates? Not bad for a supposed party of old white men, huh? LOL We also have some exciting black candidates such as Burgess Owens, UT-04, and Kimberly Klacik in MD-07, Latina/Latino contenders and a first generation American by way of Iraq. The GOP also has (at least) two physically handicapped candidates in Dale Crafts (ME-02, above) and Madison Cawthorn, NC-11. Whether these diverse candidates win or lose, they’re changing the egregiously biased media “Republicans are all white males” narrative. Running on GOP tickets we also have plenty of military veterans, which this veteran thinks we need more of in Congress.
What can you do to help retire Nancy?
Finally, there’s a lot of data entry involved in those tables above, plus a few paragraphs. I apologize for any errors and would encourage readers to point them out so I don’t inadvertently give folks the wrong information or impression.
If President Trump performs as well as I anticipate this election, I believe his coattails have a good shot of swiping that gavel from Nancy Pelosi’s fist.
That’s some good news, Speedy. Thanks for posting. According to this polling article the Dem leads by 5 points among those who have already voted. But Issa leads 7:1 among those intending to vote. And the district has more Pubbies than Dems. Trump won CA-50 by 15 points.
Bump
“A Few Long-Serving House Democrats Face Surprise Election Fights”
OR-04 Peter DeFazio
WI-03 Ron Kind
MN-07 Collin Peterson
We need to GAIN in the Senate to help offset the fake “Republicans.”
I’d love to see a few New England congressional seats flip, CT-2 and CT-5
I'm across the state from CT-05. I heard early on there was hope to reclaim that seat (D+2 district), but haven't heard much since. The GOP candidate, David X. Sullivan, seems to have a lot of support from police unions. That could be very helpful, as our state pushed through a police accountability law that is very unpopular.
I do think the CT Republicans have a good shot at making some gains in the statehouse.
New poll from University of NH
Shows Matt Mower GOP nominee in NH-1 LEADING by 2 (a 2nd poll had the rat up 5) looks like a top-tier opportunity
In same poll
Trump down by 8
Corky down by 11
Republican in NH-2 down 10
Sununu up 14 (this guy better run against Hassan in 2022)
Isn’t New Britain’s mayor a Republican? A few of Connecticut’s small cities has R mayors, correct?
I grew up in Larson’s hometown (East Hartford) and I’d love to see him go down. He talks conservative when he is in CD-1 (One day, I was at ShopRite and he was shopping, so I asked him about a bill (I forgot what it was, since it was in 2003) and he agreed on my position, when he voted, he voted against my position.
I used to live in East Hartford. The Shoprite on Main Street, by the Taco Bell?
Why in the world would Trump lose 8 points in NH from four years ago, while he’s at a minimum held serve in states such as FL, NC, OH, WI, etc.? Makes no sense to me.
Nicole’s R+3 district went for Trump by nearly ten points in 2016. Acc to this poll she leads the incumbent Dem 48-46% among likely voters. Dems are claiming awesome turnout in this district, which would appear to run counter to much of the country. Nicole has high name recognition from a failed mayoral run.
Eastman campaign says Secretary of State's allegation of election law violation is partisan politics
Harley Rouda’s Companies Racked Up Hundreds of Thousands in Tax Liens
Yes, New Britain has a GOP mayor: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erin_Stewart
But the city is overwhelmingly Democrat in federal elections. Here are the vote percentages from GOP presidential candidates since 2000:
2000: George W. Bush 25.26%
2004: George W. Bush 31.13%
2008: John McCain 24.23%
2012: Mitt Romney 22.74%
2016: Donald Trump 27.12%
RINO Nancy Johnson’s insistence that her home town of New Britain stay in her district after 2001 redistricting (when CT lost a CD and her district was renumbered as the CT-05) is one of the reasons why the GOP has been unable to win back that CD since Johnson lost reelection in 2006.
No, the ShopRite on Spencer Street in Manchester. When I moved in 2004, that ShopRite was Andy’s, then Shaw’s.
It was still Shaw’s when I moved there in early 2009. Switched over within a year or two.
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