State of the 2020 U.S. House Elections

Various links provided throughout | 10/10/2020 | Coop

[Coop]

Il-17 is on the original list of 30 Dems in Trump districts.

[Impy]

*itch was looking strong though.

She’s the chair of the DCCC, what a scalp she would be!!!!!!!

[AuH2ORepublican]

I thought that Bustos had a huge cash advantage and that the GOP wasn’t contesting the district very fervently; I had put her in the same category as Kind in WI-03: “Should be competitive based on the Trump numbers but the GOP doesn’t seem to think that it can win it.” Was a poll released that reveals her weakness?

[Impy]

Gunzberger tweeted a poll, I can’t find it but I think it was Bustos +6.

Cook just moved the race to lean D (from likely).

[Impy]

Here it is

https://capitolfax.com/2020/10/15/nrcc-has-poll-showing-bustos-on-the-bubble/

GOP poll, Bustos +5.

This a-hole Cook moved a bunch races toward the rats and this was the only one he moved towards us so there must be something real.

[Tunehead54]

Was it 2018 or 2016 when the pubbies had some 40 reps “retire” from all over - never-trumpers?

Pretty sure it it was 2018 leaving those districts with newbie pubs with little name recognition, experience, backers, etc.

Hope that’s been fixed now. ;-)

[Coop]

She’s the chair of the DCCC, what a scalp she would be!!!!!!!

Indeed. Maybe the best since Speaker Tom Foley went down in the '94 wipeout.

[Coop]

2018 saw a massive heading for the doors by senior GOP House incumbents, taking the normal mid-term headwinds and turning them into a hurricane.

[Coop]

Well, I feel kinda dumb. Just noticed my list of 30 only has 29 races. Need to find out which one I missed. Any help would be appreciated!

[Jane Long]

Excellent!!

Thanks for your hard work, on this, and for the ping/s.

LET’S TAKE BACK THE HOUSE!!

[AuH2ORepublican]

Coop, I went through the numbers compiled by the Kos Kids, and you’re missing NY-18, held by Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney, which President Trump carried by 49.0% to 47.1%. The GOP nominee in NY-18 is Chele Farley: https://www.chelefarley.com/

[Coop]

Much obliged, kind sir, for finding my omission and providing the critical info!

[AuH2ORepublican]

You’re very welcome.

[Coop]

Pinging the group. I discovered earlier today that I can't count! Only listed 29 of the 30 Dem House seats in districts won by Trump. AuH2ORepublican was kind enough to find the missing race. Since I missed her the first time around, want to give some love to GOP candidate Chele Farley.

Coop, I went through the numbers compiled by the Kos Kids, and you’re missing NY-18, held by Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney, which President Trump carried by 49.0% to 47.1%. The GOP nominee in NY-18 is Chele Farley.

This R+1 district was won by Obama 51-47 in 2012.

[Coop]

Another update. I received an E-mail today from Kimberly Klacik, running for Mfume's MD-07 district. She has slightly outraised the incumbent: $6.4M to $184K.

Maryland’s Klacik raised whopping $6.4 million after Trump shared viral ad; Mfume warns seat is ‘not for sale’

Klacik's E-mail mentioned a poll showing her trailing by 12 points, with 15% undecided. (I couldn't find it. Internal campaign poll?) Why is that something to brag about? If the poll is accurate, it's eye popping. Klacik lost the special election for this seat by an almost 3:1 ratio (74-25%). It's rated as D+26. For her to be that close (roughly 49-37%), with all that money still in the bank, is amazing. She is running a well organized, very aggressive campaign. I get 1-2 E-mails per day from her. Even if she doesn't win, she is changing the landscape for Republicans in urban districts.

[napscoordinator]

This map used to be much redder. I hope it returns.

[Coop]

That map is a prediction of the Democrats sitting in 277 (not their current 232) U.S. House seats, brought to us by a troll.

[ReelectTrump2020]

I am not expecting Klacik to win but, if she somehow pulls it off, she will instantly become my favorite Congresswoman. Favorite Congressman? Probably Crenshaw

[Coop]

If NH-02 is now competitive at the U.S. House level, then I have to believe that Trump has a great shot at winning NH (which he lost by fewer than 3,000 votes in 2016). Pence’s rally is in Portsmouth, which is a heavily Democrat part of GOP-leaning NH-01 (although it’s suburbs are more marginal). Portsmouth TV is picked up in SW Maine, which is in the heavily Democrat ME-01, but could help Trump carry Maine statewide.

And this is what I've been waiting for. Think this announcement must have rolled on sometime today:

Pres. Trump to Deliver Remarks at a MAGA Victory Rally in Manchester, NH, 10/25/20

I shortened the title and added the date. Complete title is at the link. Details:
Sun, October 25, 2020
01:00 pm (EDT)
Doors Open: 10:00 am
Pro Star Aviation
8 Kelly Ave.
Londonderry, NH, 03053

As a reminder, Trump lost NH by less than half a point and lost Maine by ~2.7 points.

[napscoordinator]

Thank you. We need a troll buster.