>> 3,902 new cases in the past 24 hours
>> 235 patients had died in the past 24 hours
No need to be an asshole, doc.
Ok, fair enough. Not trying to be an asshole, but the 6% death rate is simply inaccurate. The WHO (yes I know they suck but even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every now and then) has listed the IFR at 0.13%
Please forgive my harsh tone. Tired. Long week in the ICU. Going to sign off so as not to be an asshole any further :-)
Total cases.
The real way to look at Corona death rates is the Fatality rates once the disease is contracted; the fatality fate is derived from the totality of RESOLVED cases(recovered and the dead).
Sure a 0.0375 per cent population mortality rate sounds good. Yet that says nothing as to why we shouldn’t worry about what will happen to those who will actually catch the disease.
On the other hand to compare new deaths against new cases confirmed only in the last 24 hours is absurd. You have to compare the deaths as part of the running totals of RESOLVED cases in which the covid deaths would be totaled with those covid cases recorded as being patients who recovered or never got sick with subsequent reversions to negative on testing. This method gives one the expected mortality rates amongst those WHO ACTUALLY CATCH THE DISEASE!
Deaths/Resolved(recovered + deaths)=’s the fatality rate probability expected from the first recording of the case to it’s recorded resolution.
Initially the death rates using this method seemed high but it would be expected to decline over 6 months as more recovered cases began to outnumber the recorded covid deaths. This has born out as true and the mortality rates amongst those who catch the disease or test positive has declined to 3.5 to 4.5 percent depending on regions and definitions as to what constitutes a covid death. That rate has remained stable now for the last 3 months world wide at 4 per cent of those who test positive.
However The jury is still out as to how many will actually ever catch the disease or even reach a state of having been tested. We only have figures as to what may happen to folks who test positive, get real sick or not at all, and go on to be a resolved case either recovered testing negative or having died.
A 4 per cent mortality rate is distressingly high but don’t confuse the mortality rates of those who catch the disease with the general population, most of who may never be tested or contract the disease. Let’s say that all 338 million persons in the US test positive, some getting sick, some never having symptoms and some dying. As it stands right now about 13.5 million people or 4 per cent in the USA would be expected to die. Yet that number is absurd on the face of it since all the USA population is not going to nor will they ever all catch the virus. A 0.0375 per cent population fatality rate is plausible and a desirable data point for planning economic recovery.
Open up the country...tear off the masks!