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Stats Hold a Surprise: Lockdowns May Have Had Little Effect on COVID-19 Spread.
National Review ^ | October 4, 2020 | Jay W. Richards

Posted on 10/04/2020 7:19:03 AM PDT by karpov

In 1932, Supreme Court justice Louis Brandeis famously called the states “laboratories of democracy.” Different states can test out different policies, and they can learn from each other. That proved true in 2020. Governors in different states responded to the COVID-19 pandemic at different times and in different ways. Some states, such as California, ordered sweeping shutdowns. Others, such as Florida, took a more targeted approach. Still others, such as South Dakota, dispensed information but had no lockdowns at all.

As a result, we can now compare outcomes in different states, to test the question no one wants to ask: Did the lockdowns make a difference?

If lockdowns really altered the course of this pandemic, then coronavirus case counts should have clearly dropped whenever and wherever lockdowns took place. The effect should have been obvious, though with a time lag. It takes time for new coronavirus infections to be officially counted, so we would expect the numbers to plummet as soon as the waiting time was over.

How long? New infections should drop on day one and be noticed about ten or eleven days from the beginning of the lockdown. By day six, the number of people with first symptoms of infection should plummet (six days is the average time for symptoms to appear). By day nine or ten, far fewer people would be heading to doctors with worsening symptoms. If COVID-19 tests were performed right away, we would expect the positives to drop clearly on day ten or eleven (assuming quick turnarounds on tests).

To judge from the evidence, the answer is clear: Mandated lockdowns had little effect on the spread of the coronavirus. The charts below show the daily case curves for the United States as a whole and for thirteen U.S. states.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society
KEYWORDS: coronavirus; covid; covid19; lockdown; lockdowns
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1 posted on 10/04/2020 7:19:03 AM PDT by karpov
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To: karpov

Duh.


2 posted on 10/04/2020 7:19:36 AM PDT by mewzilla (Break out the mustard seeds.)
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To: karpov

It’s out there everywhere. Eventually you’ll get. You may not feel it. You may get a little or very sick. And you may die. Welcome to life.


3 posted on 10/04/2020 7:22:51 AM PDT by HighSierra5
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To: karpov

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/shocking-two-thirds-patients-recently-hospitalized-ny-had-been-staying-n1201421


4 posted on 10/04/2020 7:25:04 AM PDT by Sacajaweau
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To: karpov

The “lock downs” acheived what they were always meant to do disrupt the economy and cause the public to feel panicked and insecure.


5 posted on 10/04/2020 7:25:33 AM PDT by fireman15
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To: karpov

some of us have been saying this since march. throw in useless masks and you have hit the daily double


6 posted on 10/04/2020 7:27:12 AM PDT by Mom MD
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To: karpov

This is old news, NR.

Scientists at Stanford were preaching this *months* ago.


7 posted on 10/04/2020 7:28:28 AM PDT by jazminerose (Adderall, people. It was adderall.)
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To: karpov

The objective wasn’t to “flatten the curve.” It was to flatten Trump’s economy.


8 posted on 10/04/2020 7:28:46 AM PDT by Menehune56 ("Let them hate so long as they fear" (Oderint Dum Metuant), Lucius Accius (170 BC - 86 BC))
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To: karpov

So what’s the surprise?


9 posted on 10/04/2020 7:29:28 AM PDT by SoCal Pubbie
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To: karpov

“Did the lockdowns make a difference? “

No.

But only because they squandered the enormous cost of the lockdowns by simply shutting down most sectors of the economy and not actually effecting any isolation. Because only a totalitarian government can force a sufficient degree of isolation to stop a very contagious disease.

Yet we suffered the same economic cost as if it had been “done right”.

We got the worst of both worlds and it is yet to be determined if our self inflicted wounds are mortal.


10 posted on 10/04/2020 7:30:26 AM PDT by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: karpov

The lockdown’s effect on the economy...and on society in general...is breathtakingly unmistakable. We’ll see how our death stats compare with those of,say,Britain...or,better still,Sweden (which didn’t lock down).


11 posted on 10/04/2020 7:30:49 AM PDT by Gay State Conservative (Thanks To Biden Voters Oregon's Now A Battleground State)
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To: karpov

Pretty hard to believe that a Time Tested theory on Virus’s that has been around a few thousand years is still valid today.


12 posted on 10/04/2020 7:32:09 AM PDT by eyeamok
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To: karpov

Of course. Lockdowns had little to do with medicine but everything to do with Leftist exercise of political activism and tyranny.


13 posted on 10/04/2020 7:32:32 AM PDT by Jim W N (MAGA by restoring the Gospel of the Grace of Christ and our Free Constitutional Republic!)
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To: karpov

bttt


14 posted on 10/04/2020 7:36:10 AM PDT by Pajamajan ( Pray for our nation. Thank the Lord for everything you have. Don't wait. Do it today.)
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To: karpov

Surprise to who?


15 posted on 10/04/2020 7:36:15 AM PDT by 3RIVRS
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To: karpov

a surprise? we knew this last spring when POTUS pushed to open. lockdown only helped us get hospitals up and going and get all relevant supplies restocked.


16 posted on 10/04/2020 7:38:54 AM PDT by avital2
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To: mewzilla

Duh. And, no kidding. Who knew (except every power mad Democrat/Communist governor and petty official?)


17 posted on 10/04/2020 7:39:42 AM PDT by Thommas
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To: Gay State Conservative

And see the ease with which the government made it happen. A precedence has been established and WILL be used by liberals to achieve their desired end state.


18 posted on 10/04/2020 7:41:37 AM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (In this circus called the Democrat Party, Biden is the monkey and Harris is the organ grinder...)
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To: fireman15
The “lock downs” achieved what they were always meant to do disrupt the economy and cause the public to feel panicked and insecure.

AND, to take away Trump's biggest accomplishment as POTUS, a surging, thriving economy. They had to kill the economy because they didn't have an answer to rebut it, they couldn't, it was there for all to see. And, among a lot of groups that the Dems just take for granted, they were seeing a drift over to Trump.

19 posted on 10/04/2020 7:42:07 AM PDT by LibertarianLiz
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To: SoCal Pubbie

There may not be any surprise (at least on FR), but many people do not know this. Plus, the article has good objective data upon which the conclusions are based. You know — it’s the “science” that says the lockdowns had no effect. Quoting the “science” to the evil ones may be useful, but they do tend to ignore the “science” when it’s in their best interest. Or they go scientist shopping to get the answers they want.


20 posted on 10/04/2020 7:42:14 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom ("And oft conducted by historic truth, We tread the long extent of backward timef)
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