Many Freepers have expressed that watching what campaigns do is many times a better indicator. The Biden campaign, in spite of scaring people for the past several months about COVID is finally starting door-to-door grass roots campaigning instead of relying on virtual campaign stuff. That tells me they are really getting concerned.
The Democrats, having scared everyone about COVID, are going to find bussing people from churches and nursing homes more difficult this year and their concentrated college vote is dispersed since the universities are all virtual.
Meanwhile the Trump campaign has been doing door-to-door outreach for a while now and has been reaching a large number of people.
To your point, look where POTUS, VPOTUS and their surrogates are traveling to (before Trump’s COVID diagnosis) and where the RNC is spending money.
Traditionally red states that “should” be easy wins for us - Georgia, Texas, S. Carolina, ...
Meanwhile, Biden is spending in areas where he should be sure to lose.
Not hard to figure from there what is ‘really’ going on in the electorate.