“where the current new wall construction is and if it is going to deter these people?”
Bottom Line: The best places for them to try to charge across (big cities) are now significantly blocked by new wall, but there are are still a lot of difficult areas (like across the river into Texas) where a mob might be driven, with enough encouragement and support.
The new wall is being built according to Border Patrol/DHS priorities, although some segments have been delayed out of priority order (notably the Rio Grande Valley in Texas), because of local considerations (acquiring private property, flood control issues).
Historically, 300-400 miles of the border accounted for the great bulk of illegal traffic - the border cities, the Rio Grande Valley, where highways run close to the border, and some places where there are some old trails or rivers to follow. Those are the places high on the priority list.
The administration had 341 miles completed as of last Monday, and are on track for their goal of 450 by the end of this year. The total Trump Program completed or funded is 738 miles. Beyond that on the priority list, you are looking at hard rural terrain, without enough life support for large caravans.
Last year, the big caravan drama was in Tijuana/San Diego. That is very unlikely to happen again, as the old barrier there has been replaced with two runs of gigantic tall bollards, with a big “man trap” enforcement zone between them. Door closed.
Today, the Border is dramatically stronger than it was a year ago. By the end of 2021, the border will be dramatically stronger than today. That will be the great bulk of the job. After that, it will be a slower paced game of whack-a-mole, plugging 50-75 miles worth of smaller routes per year.
The Bottom Line with these People: Mexico is going to crack some heads and turn them back South, before they get within a thousand miles of our border.
Guatemala is already thinning the herd, before they even make it to Mexico.
Those Governments are now held accountable by the Trump Administration, and can’t afford to fail in their metrics - especially for Mexico to reap the windfall benefits of the new USMCA trade deal, and get a huge chunk of the supply chain, that we are ripping out of China. Money talks. This caravan will get the bloody end of a riot baton if they push the issue.
Thank you!
Art of the Deal, bilingual edition.