Weekly North Carolina Voter Registration Totals

North Carolina State Board of Elections ^ | 9/26/20 | me

[Ravi]

10/01/16:
DEMS: 2,684,243
REPS: 2,039,585
UNAFFILIATEDS: 1,995,636


09/26/20:
DEMS: 2,564,416
REPS: 2,159,465
UNAFFILIATEDS: 2,389,807


CHANGE FROM 10/1/16 TO 9/26/20:
DEMS: -137,827
REPS: +119,880
UNAFFILIATEDS: +394,171

[Ravi]

Another solid week overall in terms of voter registration changes. We sliced another 3000 from their registration advantage compared to last week - will post in a later comment. At this point in 2016, we were not slicing into their registration lead weekly like we are doing this year. Denominators are being set. October 9th is the soft registration close in NC. You can still register in-person at the early vote sites (and we know who will be showing up in-person) but you can no longer register online after October 9th.

Changes from 2016 are quite pronounced obviously as shown above. Unaffiliateds appear to be disbursed statewide at a superficial glance - I will need to confirm that later today going county by county. They again tend to vote the same way their county votes.

The trend is your friend.

[Ravi]

ping for your entertainment

[TonyInOhio]

This is excellent analysis and obviously good news. Thank you, Ravi!

[philippa]

Thanks for this. It’s so good to hear real info instead of those fake polls where Biden is way ahead.

[SpeedyInTexas]

It doesn’t appear DEMs have jumped at voter registration because of the SCOTUS nomination. At least not in the key battleground states.

If there was a “surge” in registrations post Ginsburg, it must have been in CA and NY.

[FreeReign]

I wonder what is the percentage of people who switched their registration from D to R after 2016, who already voted for Trump in 2016.

[Ravi]

no way to really know this

[Ravi]

If you want to see a more dramatic change, look at 2012 vs 2020. Now that's a crazy change. And yet Romney still won NC in 2012.

9/26/12:
Democratic: 2,789,654
Republican: 2,013,483
Unaffiliateds: 1,658,642

[RightGuy]

Please check the Dem loss, as it appears to actually be slightly less than 120,000 and not the 137,000 loss since 2016 as indicated.

Thank you for posting.

[Ravi]

Correct! So sorry

[Ravi]

[byecomey]

I’m seeing more evidence of a Ginsburg R bump than a Ginsburg D bump, but it’s been only one week. I’ll have an update next week dissecting the post-Ginsburg velocities; I need a few more days’ worth of data for that.

I need to finish my electoral predictor first. I think you’ll find it very useful.