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Why the Democrats are our narrow favourites to win the Senate: The Economist's new statistical model gives them a 67% chance of flipping the upper house of Congress.
The Economist ^ | 09/23/2020

Posted on 09/24/2020 8:30:25 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

The most important choice American voters face in November is whether to re-elect Donald Trump as president. The second-most important is whether to leave Republicans in control of the Senate, whose assent is required to pass federal laws and to confirm presidential nominees to federal courts and senior jobs.

If Mr Trump wins another term, Republicans will almost certainly hold the Senate as well. But if he does not, a Republican-controlled Senate would serve as a strong check on Joe Biden’s administration. If the record of Mitch McConnell, the Republican majority leader in the Senate, is any guide, a hostile upper chamber could block much of Mr Biden’s legislative agenda and prevent him filling most judicial vacancies—even if he wins the election in a landslide. Conversely, even a bare Senate majority would open up possibilities for him.

In practice, Democrats would be limited by the need to hold their caucus together. If they do win back the Senate, most of their new members will be centrists; their candidate in Kansas was a Republican until 2018. The last midterm elections, when Democrats did well, brought an infusion of moderates representing somewhat conservative places. Nonetheless, the difference in America’s political trajectory between scenarios in which the Democrats hold 49 Senate seats and those where they win 50—tie-breaking votes, if necessary, are cast by the vice-president—would be significant.

If the fight for the Senate gets less attention than it deserves, one reason may be that it is hard to analyse. There are no nationwide Senate polls. Instead there are 35 separate contests, in different states with different candidates (the other 65 seats are not up for election this year). Some races are polled often; others not at all. Even the rules can vary: Louisiana and Georgia use a two-round system with a run-off;

(Excerpt) Read more at economist.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: democrats; fakeeconomists; fakenews; fud; senate; theeconomist
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1 posted on 09/24/2020 8:30:25 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

2 posted on 09/24/2020 8:30:44 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

3 posted on 09/24/2020 8:31:17 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

The Economist is a corrupt globalist deep state publication...


4 posted on 09/24/2020 8:33:05 PM PDT by sheehan (DEPORT ALL ILLEGALS.)
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To: sheehan

Yeah, I’m not sure why people even post this garbage.


5 posted on 09/24/2020 8:35:14 PM PDT by norcal joe
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To: SeekAndFind

Why was McSally nominated? Couldn’t they have nominated someone who had a chance to win?


6 posted on 09/24/2020 8:35:31 PM PDT by nickcarraway
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To: SeekAndFind

Byedone winning in a landslide? Shirley you jest.


7 posted on 09/24/2020 8:41:04 PM PDT by HighSierra5
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To: SeekAndFind

sure, just like last time. /sarc


8 posted on 09/24/2020 8:42:29 PM PDT by wildcard_redneck ("Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither.")
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To: SeekAndFind

“...There are no nationwide Senate polls,
instead there are 35 separate contests...”
-
Gee, the author acts like nobody knows this.


9 posted on 09/24/2020 8:43:31 PM PDT by Repeal The 17th (Get out of the matrix and get a real life.)
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To: nickcarraway

Can somebody tell me why McSally can’t win? First Sinema beats her, possibly due to Maricopa fraud, but I’m not sure about that. Then Ducey appoints her to McCain’s (RIP) seat, and now she’s about to lose to a gun-grabbing astronaut.

WHAT. IS. HER. DEAL???


10 posted on 09/24/2020 8:45:45 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (The Constitution guarantees the States protection against insurrection. Act now, Mr. President!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Oh please! The Economist is an ultra Leftist rag!


11 posted on 09/24/2020 8:46:30 PM PDT by Artcore (Trump 2020!)
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To: SeekAndFind

this is why we need to stop attacking Rinos as we need every seat and senate-without it, even if Trump wins he is a lame duck-no more judges etc


12 posted on 09/24/2020 8:48:58 PM PDT by TECTopcat (e)
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To: SeekAndFind

Again, Trumps’ performances during the upcoming presidential debates will end up creating a pro-Trump bump that, also, has political coattails to other Republican candidates, for a variety of political offices.


13 posted on 09/24/2020 8:52:14 PM PDT by johnthebaptistmoore (The world continues to be stuck in a "all leftist, all of the time" funk. BUNK THE FUNK!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Trump will win the Presidency.

Republicans will hold the Senate.

Democrats will hold the House.


14 posted on 09/24/2020 8:54:11 PM PDT by Arcadian Empire
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To: TECTopcat

RINOs are attacking us, not the other way around.

And one characteristic of RINOs is that they attack Trump, even after he helps them; lest anyone forgot, just review what people like those on the 2012 GOP Presidential ticket did to Trump.


15 posted on 09/24/2020 8:55:45 PM PDT by Olog-hai ("No Republican, no matter how liberal, is going to woo a Democratic vote." -- Ronald Reagan, 1960)
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To: TECTopcat

It looks like the GOP is in trouble in a number of states such as Maine, North Carolina, Iowa, Georgia, Colorado, and Arizona.

It’s hard to see the Dems. run the table and take all of these, if Trump wins re-election. He’s got to have some “coattails” if he wins a 2nd term.


16 posted on 09/24/2020 8:58:20 PM PDT by Dilbert San Diego
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To: SeekAndFind

We will pick up seats in a red wave.


17 posted on 09/24/2020 9:08:47 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: Arcadian Empire

I think we retake the House as well. A red wave is coming.


18 posted on 09/24/2020 9:09:31 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: sheehan

I used to enjoy it in the 90s. There were things I disagreed with them about but they had their own perspective and usually argued their case intelligently. It changed somewhere around 2003 or 2004. It was very noticeable. Now the Economist is just another Yurp rag. I stopped reading and haven’t bothered with it since.

They have endorsed Democrats in the last 4 presidential elections and I have zero doubt they will make it 5 in a row this year.


19 posted on 09/24/2020 9:09:55 PM PDT by FLT-bird
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To: TECTopcat

Agreed. the goal now is to keep the Senate!


20 posted on 09/24/2020 9:10:12 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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