You’re confusing the basic reproduction number with the effective reproduction number. The effective reproduction number changes daily. R0 does not.
And your “T cell immunity” numbers are clearly false as well. If 60% of people already had immunity to a disease with an R0 of 2.5, there would be no infections and no deaths. If 40% had it, New Jersey wouldn’t be sitting at ~28% infected nor New York at ~26% infected with new cases popping up daily. Once you reach HIT, Rt drops below 1 and new infections dwindle towards zero. That has not been observed anywhere in the US.
The thing that scares people more than anything is bad information. It makes it look like we don’t know what’s going on, and fear of the unknown is always much worse than fear of the known. Alfred Hitchcock made a career out of knowing that.
We do know what’s going on. SARS-CoV-2 has infected around 10.4% of the US population. It has an R0 of 2.5, indicating a Herd Immunity Threshold of 60%. 40% of those infected experience no symptoms. Another 40% experience mild to moderate symptoms requiring no medical treatment to recover. 20% will require medical intervention. 3-5% require critical care. 0.65% of those infected will die. We have multiple viable vaccine candidates completing phase 3 human trials right now. Due to President Trump’s negotiations and funding, doses of those vaccines have been manufactured throughout the phase 3 trials, shaving months of time off that timeline. We’ll likely have 2-5 safe and effective vaccines approved by the end of this year. Possibly 1-2 before election day. Tens of millions - possibly 100 million - doses will be available to Americans by the end of this year. Transmissions will slow to a crawl and life will start returning to normal normal early next year.
It’s really not that scary. We know what it is, we know how it spreads, we know how to slow it, and we know how to stop it. The way to alleviate fear is not with misinformation, but with verifiable facts.
Whose facts? You have a sitting duck population on a cruise ship only 24% got infected. There is some natural immunity (t cell) not taken into account. I have seen R0 numbers all over the place. At the rate of 1000 deaths per day it would take 3 years to reach your million dead and that’s if the numbers don’t keep dropping. Places like Sweden prove herd immunity is reached with not many more deaths than we have had already. I’m not afraid, far from it. Your numbers are irresponsible and certainly not fact but I’m sure fauci agrees with you so there’s that. I’m leaving for the day but will try to check back later.